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The British currency increased after receiving support from macroeconomic data. It seized the moment and strengthened its position.
On Wednesday, the pound began to build up its potential and then continued this trend. It strengthened against the US dollar amid expectations of tightening monetary policy by the Bank of England. This was facilitated by impressive data on the UK's labor market.
According to current macroeconomic reports, the UK labor market was on top and was able to withstand the pressure of inflation. By the end of October 2021, annual inflation in the country accelerated to 4.2% from the previous 3.1%. Experts consider this to be a record figure for the last 10 years. Last month, consumer prices in the United Kingdom soared by 1.1%. In September, their growth was 0.3%. Economists had expected annual inflation to be in the range of 3.9%, and monthly inflation to be around 0.8%. According to Sam Cooper, vice president of market risk at Silicon Valley, the current macro reports indicate that inflationary pressures are continuing.
"They support the arguments in favor of raising the interest rate by the Bank of England in December," S. Cooper emphasized.
Keith Jax, currency strategist at Societe Generale, agrees with the opinion of Silicon Valley analyst. He draws attention to the 4.2% year-on-year increase in consumer prices, which significantly exceeds the 2% inflation target. According to K. Jax, this is an additional incentive for politicians who support a rate hike by the Bank of England.
The current situation turned out to be favorable for the pound. Yesterday, the pound rose to a one-week high against the US currency and to a 21-month peak against the European one. At the same time, the GBP/USD pair was trading near the level of 1.3436. The British currency has broken price records and is trying to keep its positions. On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD pair rose to the level of 1.3491.
Analysts said that the pair received strong support after the release of strong data on UK inflation. During this week, the GBP/USD pair was trading above the descending regression channel, which turned out to be in the hands of the bulls. Currently, the bulls are trying to take the lead from the bears, and these efforts are quite successful. According to experts, the closest target of the GBP/USD pair is the 1.3505 mark.
Against this background, market expectations about the December rate hike by the Bank of England are increasing. However, one problem is the situation around Brexit. It can be recalled that the UK and the EU cannot come to a compromise on a mutual trade agreement. Also in question is the signing of trade agreements with respect to Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom after Brexit. It is expected that a corresponding agreement will be reached by Christmas.
Serious concerns about a trade war with the European Union also adds pressure to the pound. In view of this, the British currency was on the verge of falling, but was able to rise. Current market expectations are associated with the rise of the key rate by the Bank of England, which will be the first of the major central banks to solve this issue. Market participants estimate this probability at 60%. It is possible that the British regulator will raise the interest rate at the meeting scheduled for December 16.
According to Societe Generale's analyst K. Jax, impressive data on the British labor market, which "encourage politicians to move on," testify in favor of such a decision. The implementation of such a scenario will give momentum to the pound, helping it overcome current difficulties.
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