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The Federal Reserve raised rates in accordance with forecasts, but the dot chart turned out to be much more aggressive. What increases is the Fed planning in the future and where will this lead the dollar?
Volatility in the markets was noted even before the announcement of the rate decision, market players had a premonition of some innovations, and the Fed did not disappoint. The rate was raised by 75 bps on Wednesday, but a lot more will need to be done to curb inflation, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted.
The average dot graph for the end of 2022 was raised to 4.4% from 3.4%. This means that it is planned to increase by 125 bps in the last two meetings.
The median point of 2023 has risen by about 80 bps above the June forecast. The Fed may end its increase cycle at the level of 4.6%.
"The 2024 midpoint has been raised from 3.4% to 3.9%, while the recently included forecast for 2025 suggests that only 1.7 percentage points of interest rates will be lowered from next year's peak over the next two years," Monex Europe comments.
The more hawkish attitude is obvious. This is also noticeable according to new economic estimates. The central bank's quarterly forecasts showed that the economy will slow down in 2022, while growth at the end of the year will be 0.2%, in 2023 it will expand to 1.2%, which is significantly below the potential of the economy. Although earlier it was about an increase of 1.7%.
The unemployment rate, which currently stands at 3.7%, according to new estimates, will rise this year to 3.8% and to 4.4% in 2023. Inflation should slowly return to the Fed's 2% target in 2025.
Thus, the overall direction of the Fed is fully consistent with the continued strengthening of the dollar, and the initial volatility observed after this event should eventually calm down. The greenback will confirm its upward trend.
Any sharp depreciation, if any, could be short-lived, analysts said.
After the announcement of the rate decision, the dollar went above 111.00. The index could then target 112.00 or higher.
What Did Powell Say?
The scatter plot is not a commitment that must be followed, Powell said. The pace of tightening will depend on the incoming data, and it will also depend on how much the scatter plot can be further adjusted.
At some point, it will make sense to slow down the rate hike. At the moment, given the current realities, there are no plans to reduce rates until 2024. Decisions and plans will be adjusted from meeting to meeting.
The tightening of policy will continue until there is confidence in the victory over inflationary pressures. Everything possible and impossible will be done to achieve the goals.
Naturally, this will not be painless for the economy. It should become easier as soon as the country gets on the path of reducing inflation.
"We expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to become more balanced over time," Powell said.
While not dismissive of the risks of inflation, according to the head of the Fed, it "remains well above our target level of 2%".
As for a recession, it is not possible to exclude or predict it at some point. However, such a scenario is not excluded.
"No one knows if we will have a recession, and if so, how deep. The chances of a soft landing are likely to decrease depending on the extent to which the policy should be more restrictive," the head of the central bank summed up.
At the same time, the refusal to fight inflationary pressure will bring much more problems to the economy.
"Policy needs to be tightened to a restrictive level," meaning "significant downward pressure on inflation," Powell said.
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