empty
bd
অনুসন্ধান
Support
Instant account opening
Trading Platform
Deposit/Withdraw
অনুসন্ধান
নতুনদের জন্য ট্রেডারদের জন্য পার্টনারদের জন্য বিরতি নিন About InstaSpot
bd
For Traders
ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ
Fundamental analysis

12.02.202416:00 ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ এবং পর্যালোচনা: GBP/USD: Important week for the pound

The GBP/USD pair opened trading with a confident rise amid a general weakening of the American currency. The U.S. Dollar Index sharply declined at the start of the European session, allowing buyers of the pair to strengthen their positions and approach the resistance level of 1.2650 (at this price point, the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines on the daily chart coincide). However, the upward momentum waned.

Exchange Rates 12.02.2024 analysis

Still, in the current fundamental conditions, it is not advisable to trust the current price fluctuations. Any price movements today are inherently unreliable, as the market is awaiting crucial macroeconomic reports to be published this week. All the attention of dollar bulls is focused on the U.S. Consumer Price Index, scheduled for February 13. The British currency, in turn, is also on the verge of significant tests: starting Tuesday, the pound will react to its own reports. Therefore, ahead are quite eventful and highly volatile days. And that is precisely why today's price fluctuations should not be taken seriously: the main battles are still ahead.

Labor market

On Tuesday, February 13, the UK will publish a report on the labor market. According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate should decrease to 4.0% in December. Over the previous four months, this indicator remained at the same level of 4.2%, although, in each case, experts predicted a downward trend. If unemployment does indeed decrease this time, the pound will receive some support. However, it is worth acknowledging that this indicator is quite lagging, while more prompt indicators may not favor the pound.

For example, the indicator of the increase in the number of claims for unemployment benefits is expected to reach 15,000 (the maximum since June of last year), after an increase of 11,000 in the previous month. Wages may also not be in favor of the pound. Excluding bonuses, the level of average earnings has shown a downward trend for three months, and December may be the fourth month in this series. According to forecasts, the indicator will drop to 6.0%. With the inclusion of bonuses, the wage indicator is also consistently falling: if in July 2023, the indicator was at 8.5%, in November, it reached 6.5%. In December, the indicator is expected to reach 5.6%.

Inflation

On the next day, February 14, key inflation data will be published in the UK. The overall Consumer Price Index for three months (from July to September inclusive) was at 6.7%, then sharply declined in October (to 4.6%) and continued to decrease in November (3.9%). However, in December, it unexpectedly accelerated to 4.0%. According to the majority of experts, in January, the overall inflation will again demonstrate acceleration up to 4.1%.

The core Consumer Price Index, excluding energy and food prices, is expected to demonstrate a similar trajectory, accelerating to 5.2%.

The Retail Price Index may also see a slight increase, reaching 5.3% YoY, following two months of stagnation at 5.2%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

On Thursday, February 15, a crucial block of macroeconomic statistics will be published. Specifically, we will learn about the growth rates of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2023. According to forecasts, the quarterly GDP growth rate of the country is expected to contract by 0.1%, while on an annual basis, it is projected to increase by 0.5%. The December economic growth rates may be disappointing (-0.2% QoQ, -0.1% YoY). Additionally, a contraction in industrial production volume is expected in December (-0.1% MoM, -0.2% YoY). The volume of manufacturing production is expected to decline by 0.2% on a monthly basis and rise by 1.1% annually (after a 1.3% increase in November).

Conclusion

What do the stated figures suggest? Firstly, the Bank of England will likely maintain a wait-and-see position in the foreseeable future. Following the January meeting, the English regulator excluded the phrase about the possible further tightening of monetary policy from the accompanying statement. However, the prospects of lowering interest rates remain uncertain. Last week, a representative of the Bank of England, Sarah Breeden, stated that the regulator had shifted from tightening monetary policy to contemplating when it could be lowered. A necessary condition for this is further inflation slowdown. This suggests that the growth of the British CPI in January may weaken the degree of "dovish" expectations and strengthen the positions of GBP/USD buyers.

It is also worth recalling that during the final press conference, the head of the central bank, Andrew Bailey, supported the idea of keeping the rate at the current level "for an extended period" - until there is confidence that inflation will decrease to the target two percent level. According to him, the duration of the restrictive interest rate "will be determined based on incoming data."

Thus, the macroeconomic releases in the coming days (primarily related to inflation) may bring forward or delay the date of the first round of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Considering the significance of these reports, it is currently advisable to maintain a wait-and-see position for the GBP/USD pair. The situation is in a delicate balance: the scales can tilt in favor of the pound or against it.

*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।

Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
বিশ্লেষকদের পরামর্শসমূহের উপকারিতা এখনি গ্রহণ করুন
ট্রেডিং অ্যাকাউন্টে অর্থ জমা করুন
ট্রেডিং অ্যাকাউন্ট খুলুন

ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।

আরও দেখুন

ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ এবং পর্যালোচনা
সব বিশ্লেষণ
Stock Markets
Hot forecast
Trading plan
Crypto-currencies
Trend line
Video analytics
Instrument:
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
GBPJPY
EURGBP
EURJPY
NZDUSD
EURNZD
Silver
Gold
#USDX
COVID-19
Bitcoin
ফটোনিউজ
সব ফটোনিউজ

ফরেক্স নিউজ
  • 2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Signs of Stabilization: Irish CPI Sees Slight Decline in February
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Spain's Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Indicator Declines in March, Reflecting Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Thomson Reuters IPSOS Consumer Sentiment in Israel Sees Modest Uptick in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    France's Economic Sentiment Brightens in March, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Shows
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Sweden's Consumer Sentiment Shows Slight Improvement in March, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Reports
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    UK Consumer Sentiment Dips in March Amid Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Turkey's Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Sees Notable Uptick in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Germany's Consumer Sentiment Inch Upwards: March 2025 Report Shows Mild Optimism Amid Economic Challenges
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Italy's Consumer Confidence Sees Decline, Drops to 45.22 in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Greek Credit Expansion Surges to 7.1% Year-Over-Year in January 2025
    কুইক শো
  • 2025-03-13 23:46:00
    New Zealand's Manufacturing Sector Shows Strong Rebound in February PMI Report
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    South Korea's Import Price Index Declines in February, Signaling Eased Inflationary Pressures
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    South Korea's Export Price Index Drops Significantly in February
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US Federal Reserve Balances Rise to $3.459 Trillion in Latest Update
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Fed’s Balance Sheet Experiences Marginal Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US 30-Year Bond Auction Yields Fall to 4.623%
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. 8-Week Bill Auction Yields Steady at 4.220% Amid Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Treasury Auctions Reflect Slight Decline in 4-Week Bill Rates Amid Economic Shifts
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US Natural Gas Storage Deficit Narrows in March 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. Jobless Claims 4-Week Average Sees Slight Increase to 226K
    কুইক শো
  • 2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Drop Slightly, Indicating Stabilizing Labor Market
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US Continuing Jobless Claims Dip to 1,870,000 in March 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US Core PPI Slips Slightly in February, Signals Stabilizing Inflation Trend
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US PPI Ex. Food/Energy/Transport Falls to 0.2% in February 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. PPI Eases in February, Signaling Potential Relief in Production Costs
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US Core PPI Shows Slight Decline in February Amid Economic Adjustments
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Canada's Building Permits Plummet by 3.2% in January 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. Producer Price Index Stagnates in February, Holding at 0.0% Growth
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. Core PPI Takes Surprising Dip, Moves into Negative Territory in February
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Mexico's Industrial Production Slump Deepens as January Figures Show a Decline to -2.9%
    কুইক শো
  • 2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Mexico's Industrial Production Shows Signs of Recovery in January
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Brazilian Service Sector Shows Signs of Resilience with Incremental Growth in January
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Brazil's Service Sector Growth Slows Down in January Following December Peak
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Turkey's Net FX Reserves Show Significant Increase to 74.26%
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Turkey's Gross FX Reserves Experience Significant Growth in 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Brazil's Bank Lending Stalls in January Amid Economic Concerns
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Israel's Trade Deficit Narrows in February, Reflecting Economic Resilience
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Israel's Import Figures Dip in February 2025 Amid Potential Market Adjustments
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Israel Sees Modest Growth in Exports for February 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Serbian Central Bank Holds Steady: Interest Rate Remains at 5.75% in March
    কুইক শো
  • 2025-03-13 23:46:00
    South Africa's Consumer Confidence Sees Marginal Improvement in March, Says Latest Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Report
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    South Africa's Manufacturing Sector Experiences Resurgence With Positive Growth in January
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    South Africa's Manufacturing Production Dips Further in January
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Hungary's Consumer Sentiment Index Sees Modest Uptick in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Poland's Economic Outlook Dips: PCSI Index Drops to 48.68 in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Saudi Arabia's Consumer Confidence Dips in March Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Belgium's IPSOS PCSI Index Shows Slight Decline Amid Economic Uncertainties
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Ireland's HICP Sees Slight Uptick in February 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Ireland's Inflation Rate Records a Slight Uptick in February Amidst Economic Volatility
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Ireland's Inflation Surges to 0.9% in February after January Slump
    কুইক শো
  • 2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Signs of Stabilization: Irish CPI Sees Slight Decline in February
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Spain's Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Indicator Declines in March, Reflecting Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Thomson Reuters IPSOS Consumer Sentiment in Israel Sees Modest Uptick in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    France's Economic Sentiment Brightens in March, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Shows
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Sweden's Consumer Sentiment Shows Slight Improvement in March, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Reports
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    UK Consumer Sentiment Dips in March Amid Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Turkey's Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Sees Notable Uptick in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Germany's Consumer Sentiment Inch Upwards: March 2025 Report Shows Mild Optimism Amid Economic Challenges
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Italy's Consumer Confidence Sees Decline, Drops to 45.22 in March
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Greek Credit Expansion Surges to 7.1% Year-Over-Year in January 2025
    কুইক শো
  • 2025-03-13 23:46:00
    New Zealand's Manufacturing Sector Shows Strong Rebound in February PMI Report
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    South Korea's Import Price Index Declines in February, Signaling Eased Inflationary Pressures
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    South Korea's Export Price Index Drops Significantly in February
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US Federal Reserve Balances Rise to $3.459 Trillion in Latest Update
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Fed’s Balance Sheet Experiences Marginal Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US 30-Year Bond Auction Yields Fall to 4.623%
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. 8-Week Bill Auction Yields Steady at 4.220% Amid Economic Uncertainty
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    Treasury Auctions Reflect Slight Decline in 4-Week Bill Rates Amid Economic Shifts
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    US Natural Gas Storage Deficit Narrows in March 2025
    কুইক শো
    2025-03-13 23:46:00
    U.S. Jobless Claims 4-Week Average Sees Slight Increase to 226K
    কুইক শো
কোম্পানি সংবাদ
সব খবর
Spring brings luck! Win $8,000 with InstaForex!

Spring brings luck! Win $8,000 with InstaForex!

International Women's Day is a time for gifts, spring, and new opportunities! As the most vibrant holiday of the year approaches, InstaForex is launching its traditional Chancy Deposit contest! You have a unique chance to win $8,000 and make this holiday truly unforgettable! How to participate? It's simple: Fund your InstaForex trading account Wait for the winner to be announced What to do with your prize money? Anything you want: dream shopping, an unforgettable trip, or new, more profitable investments. The money is in your hands! Hurry, the campaign is time-limited! Top up your account and join the race for $8,000 today. Who knows, this could be your lucky day. Register.

Show more
Caricatures
All caricatures
এখন কথা বলতে পারবেন না?
আপনার প্রশ্ন জিজ্ঞাসা করুন চ্যাট.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaSpot anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.