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Today, the USD/CAD pair is gaining positive momentum, breaking a three-day losing streak and halting a recent corrective pullback from its highest level since April 2020, near 1.4179–1.4180, reached last Tuesday.
The tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump against the three largest trading partners of the United States — Canada, Mexico, and China — continue to pressure the Canadian dollar. This, coupled with renewed demand for the U.S. dollar, serves as another supportive factor for the currency pair.
In a weekend post, Trump threatened a 100% tariff on BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — if they replace the U.S. dollar with another currency for international transactions. This statement has fueled speculation that his tariff policies could resurface inflationary pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to halt rate cuts or even consider rate hikes. These prospects have triggered another surge in U.S. Treasury yields, further bolstering demand for the U.S. dollar.
Additionally, cautious market sentiment continues to benefit the greenback, supporting USD/CAD demand. Even a slight rise in oil prices failed to offset the losses of the commodity-tied Canadian dollar. This suggests that, in the short term, the path of least resistance for the pair remains upward.
Traders may refrain from aggressive directional positions. This is due to crucial U.S. macroeconomic data scheduled for the start of the new month. This week's U.S. session begins with significant economic reports, including the ISM Manufacturing Index, while the primary focus will remain on the NFP non-farm payrolls report, set for release on Friday.
These employment figures will provide crucial insights into the Fed's rate policy and influence the U.S. dollar, driving USD/CAD momentum.
Bullish oscillators on the daily chart confirm a short-term positive forecast, supporting prospects for additional gains. Subsequent buying above 1.4045 could enable spot prices to reclaim the 1.4100 level. The momentum may lift USD/CAD toward its multi-month high near 1.4179–1.4180, eventually reaching the 1.4200 round level. Beyond this, the pair could aim for its 2020 high.
The 1.4000 psychological level now serves as the first line of support against further declines, ahead of Friday's multi-day low near 1.3980. Failure to hold these levels could trigger technical selling, leading to a deeper correction from the multi-year peak.
Below this, USD/CAD could drop toward support at 1.3955, then 1.3925, or last week's swing low. Further losses may test the 1.3900 round level, and a breach could push spot prices toward the November low of 1.3820–1.3815.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
