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In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2689 level and planned market entry decisions around it. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to analyze what occurred. The pair's rise and the formation of a false breakout at this level offered a viable selling opportunity. By the time of writing, this resulted in a 15-point decline, prompting a revision of the technical outlook for the second half of the day.
The absence of significant data has sparked renewed demand for the British pound, alongside a broader appetite for riskier assets. For the bulls to dominate in the second half of the session, weak results from the JOLTS job openings report and the Economic Optimism Index, coupled with dovish comments from FOMC members Adriana D. Kugler and Austan D. Goolsbee signaling the possibility of US rate cuts in December, would be required.
If GBP/USD declines, I would act after a failed breakout near the 1.2653 support level, which earlier acted as resistance. The initial target would be 1.2689, where buyers previously struggled. A breakout and retest of this level from above would create a new buying opportunity, targeting 1.2718. If bullish momentum continues, the ultimate target would be 1.2742, where I plan to lock in profits.
If GBP/USD drops further and bulls show no activity around 1.2653, sellers may gain momentum for a deeper decline. In this case, a failed breakout near 1.2618 would justify long positions. Alternatively, immediate long trades could be initiated at 1.2591, aiming for a 30-35 point intraday correction.
Pressure on the pound could resurface at any time, particularly in response to strong US statistics. I plan to enter short positions after a failed breakout at 1.2689, as observed earlier. This setup would offer a selling opportunity targeting the 1.2653 support level, where the moving averages lie.
A breakout and retest of this range from below could trigger stop-loss orders, opening the way toward 1.2618. The ultimate target would be 1.2591, where I plan to secure profits.
If demand for the pound persists following weak US data and GBP/USD rises, and sellers show no activity around 1.2689, buyers could push the pair higher toward 1.2718. In such a scenario, I would consider selling only after a failed breakout at this level. If there is no downward movement even at 1.2718, I will look for short positions near 1.2742, targeting a 30-35 point downward correction.
COT Report Overview
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, which tracks speculative trader positions, revealed the following for November 26:
The Bank of England's pause in rate cuts has added pressure on pound buyers. Weak UK economic data continues to weigh on the currency, with recession risks looming for 2024. Rising inflation and potential US trade tariffs have also heightened uncertainty, contributing to the bearish outlook.
Trading occurs near the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.
The lower Bollinger Band boundary near 1.2618 serves as support during declines.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
