empty
bd
Support
Instant account opening
Trading Platform
Deposit/Withdraw

07.04.202503:23 ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ এবং পর্যালোচনা: GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 7. The British Pound Delivered a Major Surprise on Friday

Exchange Rates 07.04.2025 analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair rose 280 pips between Wednesday and Thursday, only to crash by 340 on Friday. These kinds of "flights" have become a regular occurrence lately. While the dollar's collapse after Trump's introduction of new, sweeping tariffs can be easily explained, the sharp dollar rally on Friday is more challenging to understand. That said, there were indeed strong drivers behind the dollar's rebound.

First, the Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the creation of 228,000 new jobs, significantly above the 135,000 forecasts. Second, Jerome Powell reiterated on Friday that the U.S. president can impose any tariffs or sanctions — none of that matters to the Federal Reserve. The central bank is only interested in the consequences of those actions: their impact on the economy, inflation, and labor market. Once those effects are clearer, the Fed will respond.

Third, Powell again made it clear that an economic downturn is not the Fed's problem—especially if it's not caused by monetary policy. Let us reiterate: if a recession does hit the U.S., it will be attributed to one man—Donald Trump. No one will think of blaming the Fed. Powell doesn't want to be responsible for the consequences of the president's actions, which most of the world condemns.

To summarize, there were reasons for the dollar rallying on Friday. However, in recent months, market participants have routinely ignored dollar-supportive data. And Powell's Friday message wasn't anything new — he's been repeating for months that the Fed is in no rush to ease monetary policy. We still believe that if inflation in the U.S. continues to rise (which seems highly likely), the Fed might abandon the idea of easing altogether in 2025. The Fed's hawkish tone hasn't mattered to traders recently, so there's little reason to believe it will suddenly spark a significant dollar rally now.

What can we say about the currency market and private traders if Powell sees high economic uncertainty? How can everyday traders predict currency movements if the Fed Chair can't forecast key macro indicators for the coming months?

It's also worth remembering that while Trump pushes his trade agenda, the European Union isn't planning to accept the new trade reality in silence. Retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. may be introduced as soon as next week. Trump, in turn, might respond with tariffs on the retaliatory tariffs. In our view, the global trade war will only escalate further soon. In such a fundamentally political and trade-driven environment, predicting currency movements becomes nearly impossible.

Exchange Rates 07.04.2025 analysis

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 154 pips, which is considered "high" for this pair. On Monday, April 7, we expect the pair to move from 1.2741 to 1.3049. The long-term regression channel is pointed upward, but the downtrend remains intact on the daily time frame. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone, signaling a corrective pullback, which has begun swiftly.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3184

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has entered a sharp decline that may evolve into a prolonged correction — at the very least, a correction. We still do not consider long positions valid at this stage, as the current upward movement looks like a disjointed correction on the daily time frame. However, if you trade purely on technical signals, long positions remain relevant with a target of 1.3184, provided the price holds above the moving average. The pound could continue to rise if Trump keeps imposing tariffs and other countries introduce retaliatory measures. Short positions remain attractive with targets at 1.2207 and 1.2146 because the upward correction on the daily chart will eventually end — unless the broader downtrend ends first. Even if we are witnessing the beginning of a new uptrend, a downward correction is needed, as the pound has risen far too sharply in recent weeks.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।

বিশ্লেষকদের পরামর্শসমূহের উপকারিতা এখনি গ্রহণ করুন
ট্রেডিং অ্যাকাউন্টে অর্থ জমা করুন
ট্রেডিং অ্যাকাউন্ট খুলুন

ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।

আরও দেখুন


ফরেক্স নিউজ
  • 2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Trade Gap Largest in 6 Months
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Sees Significant Trade Deficit Rise in March 2025
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Records Sharp Rise in Import Growth for March 2025
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong's Exports Surge in March Amid Global Market Fluctuations
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    German Bund Yield Rebounds Ahead of Key Data
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hang Seng Ends Muted After China Pledges Support Without New Stimulus
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    UK Stocks Slightly Up
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Austria's Manufacturing Sector Shows Slight Decline in PMI for April
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Italian Shares Hit Over 3-Week High as Banks Rally
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    DAX Starts the Week Higher
  • 2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Brazil Sees Sharp Decline in Foreign Direct Investment in March
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Brazil's Current Account Deficit Narrows Significantly in March
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    US 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction Yields Slight Increase to 4.065%
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    U.S. Treasury 3-Month Bill Auction Sees Slight Decline in Yield to 4.200%
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexican Peso Hovers Below 19.6 USD
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Ibovespa Rises to 7-Month High
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Lowest in Nearly 5 Years
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Wheat Drops to 8-Month Low
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Texas Manufacturing Tumbles: Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index Plummets to -35.8 in April
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Dollar Eases as Traders Brace for Busy Week
  • 2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexico Trade Surplus Biggest in More Than 2 Years
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    TSX Rises on Election Day
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Wall Street Optimistic Amid Heavy Earnings Week
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Canada Wholesale Sales Expected to Contract in March
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    French 12-Month BTF Auction Sees Slight Uptick in Yield to 1.905%
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    France's 6-Month BTF Auction Yields Slightly Lower at 2.015%
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    France's 3-Month BTF Auction Sees Slight Rise in Interest Rates
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexico Unemployment Rate at Historical Low
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Canada's Wholesale Sales Dip in March: Economic Uncertainty Looms
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexico's Unemployment Rate Ticks Down to 2.60% in March 2025
  • 2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexico's Trade Surplus Narrows to $1.035 Billion in March
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexico's Unemployment Rate Drops to New Low in March 2025
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexico's Trade Balance Surges in March, Reaches $3.442 Billion
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    India's Manufacturing Output Sees Modest Growth in March 2025
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    India's Industrial Production Inches Up to 3.0% in March, Continuing Gradual Growth
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    India's Industrial Production Growth Sees Marginal Dip in March 2025
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    TTF Prices Hover at 9-Month Low
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    UK CBI Retail Sales Fall the Least in 6 Months
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Steel Edges Higher from 7-Month Low
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Macau Trade Gap Narrows in March
  • 2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Austria Manufacturing PMI at 3-Month Low
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    French Jobseeker Numbers Decline in March, Prompting Cautious Optimism
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    UK Retail Sales Rebound in April: CBI's Latest Survey Shows Promising Upswing
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Imports Growth at 14-Month High
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Uranium Edges Higher from 18-Month Low
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Brent Crude Oil Holds Below $67
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Italian BOT Yields See Slight Decline in Recent 6-Month Auction
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Euro Retreats from 3-Year High as Data-Heavy Week Begins
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Sterling Holds Close to 7-Month High
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Exports Growth at 14-Month High
  • 2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Trade Gap Largest in 6 Months
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Sees Significant Trade Deficit Rise in March 2025
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong Records Sharp Rise in Import Growth for March 2025
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hong Kong's Exports Surge in March Amid Global Market Fluctuations
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    German Bund Yield Rebounds Ahead of Key Data
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Hang Seng Ends Muted After China Pledges Support Without New Stimulus
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    UK Stocks Slightly Up
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Austria's Manufacturing Sector Shows Slight Decline in PMI for April
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Italian Shares Hit Over 3-Week High as Banks Rally
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    DAX Starts the Week Higher
  • 2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Brazil Sees Sharp Decline in Foreign Direct Investment in March
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Brazil's Current Account Deficit Narrows Significantly in March
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    US 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction Yields Slight Increase to 4.065%
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    U.S. Treasury 3-Month Bill Auction Sees Slight Decline in Yield to 4.200%
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Mexican Peso Hovers Below 19.6 USD
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Ibovespa Rises to 7-Month High
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Lowest in Nearly 5 Years
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Wheat Drops to 8-Month Low
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Texas Manufacturing Tumbles: Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index Plummets to -35.8 in April
    2025-04-28 18:46:47
    Dollar Eases as Traders Brace for Busy Week
এখন কথা বলতে পারবেন না?
আপনার প্রশ্ন জিজ্ঞাসা করুন চ্যাট.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaSpot anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.