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The dollar is falling. The decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds suggests that the Fed will reduce interest rates this month. Government bonds are at the center of a global rally, which pushed the yield of US Treasury bonds to the lowest level in the last 2.5 years and sent the European yield to record low levels. One conclusion – large Central banks will lower interest rates to support economic growth. Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by the trade war between the US and China.
Among the positive factors are data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the United States, which, according to economists, increased by 160,000 in June compared to 75,000 in May. But the positive data on wages are unlikely to support the dollar, they will not block the effect of lower rates in the United States. More and more market participants put on a decline, given the low inflation and the consequences of tariffs, which imposed each other the US and China. With low yields on government bonds, it makes no sense to expect people to buy the dollar. Market sentiment suggests a decline in the dollar in the short term.
The only thing against the background of expectations of lower rates in Europe and the UK dollar may be easier to move against the yen. Recall, the dollar fell by 3.5% against the yen over the past three months amid growing signs that the Fed will reduce rates at a meeting on July 30-31. In addition, on Thursday, it makes no sense to wait for active trading in the foreign exchange market, as the US markets are closed on the weekend. The administration of US President Donald Trump said that a meeting with Chinese colleagues is scheduled next week, which will mark the resumption of negotiations between the two countries. However, expectations for a peaceful resolution of the dispute declined after Trump said that any agreement should be in favor of the United States.
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