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The US economy contracted by 0.6% in Q2, the second estimate showed. This is less than a 0.9% fall in the first estimate. Still, the economy technically entered a recession, following a 1.6% drop in Q1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months."
Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims for unemployment benefits in the United States went down, well below market estimates, which is a positive factor for the country's jobs market.
Statistics in detail:
The number of continuing claims fell to 1,1415K versus 1,434K.
The number of initial claims dropped to 243K from 245K.
Conclusion
In spite of strong data in the United States, the greenback is still overbought. Therefore, its further rise in the market is unlikely.
Interesting facts:
According to Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, the central bank still has room to raise rates this year. He believes it is still too early to talk about a peak in inflation, although there are some encouraging signs on that front. "We all, as policymakers, understand that inflation is a big problem and is a challenge that we are going to do all that we can to handle," he said. If data remains strong and inflation does not soften, it may make a case for another 75 basis point move. The official expects some weakening in the economy. The Fed needs to really make sure inflation is well on its way to 2% before taking any steps to increase accommodation in the policy stance, he stated.
Analysis of trading charts (August 25)
EUR/USD has been below the parity level for 4 days. The pair is moving in the 0.9900/1.0000 range.
Through positive correlation with EUR/USD, GBP/USD is moving sideways in the range of 100 pips (1.1750/1.1850) due to the current accumulation phase ahead of an important event.
Macro events on August 26
The annual Jackson Hole symposium to be held on August 25-27 is the main event this week.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak today at the symposium. The market expects some clarity from the chairman as to the regulator's further monetary stance, namely about the pace of rate hikes.
His statement will become the main driving force for financial markets.
The market's possible reaction
The chairman's hints at the possibility of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes may trigger a spike in the US stock market and a sell-off in the dollar.
However, should Mr. Powell say nothing new or interesting, it will cause an opposite reaction with the US stock market going down and the greenback getting even stronger.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on August 26
The pair's sideways movement in a 100 pips range is just an accumulation phase, which is highly likely to cause further growth in the market.
Nothing has changed since yesterday, so the trading plan remains the same.
Should the quote consolidate above 1.0050 on the 4-hour chart, an upward correction will start.
Alternatively, if the price settles below 0.9900 at least on the 4-hour chart, the bearish trend will extend.
Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 26
Against the current backdrop, an impulse in the current range is likely to show the future direction of the price.
Should the price consolidate below 1.1750 on the 4-hour chart, the downtrend may extend. Alternatively, the target is seen at 1.1880 in case of a correction in the market.
A candlestick chart shows white and black bars with lines at the top and bottom. When analyzed in detail, each candlestick is different depending on a time frame: the opening and closing price as well as the maximum and minimum price.
Horizontal levels are levels of support and resistance that help traders determine when a trend is likely to change.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where past reversals occurred. Such highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may exert some pressure on quotes in the future.
Up/down arrows show possible future price movements.
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