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Industrial production in the UK slowed down the annual pace of its decline to -2.4% from -3.1%, much better than the expected fall of 2.7%. Therefore, the pound sterling was able to gain some ground. Nevertheless, the technical picture remains roughly the same because GDP developed a minor growth. GBP/USD remains within the trading range formed at the end of the last trading week. The single European currency also went up in a similar manner but it also retreated back to the levels of the trading day.
UK Industrial Production, y/y
Today, at least in the European session, the sterling will retreat to the same levels where it traded before the publication of the UK industrial production data. The jobless rate in the UK is expected to inch up to 3.7% from 3.6%.
UK Unemployment Rate
Serious market moves will happen in the early hours of the North American trade when the US reports on its consumer inflation. Commonly, this highly-anticipated data matters a lot to market sentiment. This time, the US CPI prefaces the policy meeting of the Feral Open Market Committee which will kick off tomorrow. The FOC is sure to raise the federal funds rate, but market participants foresee two scenarios for the size of the rate hike. In this context, the inflation data will shed light on this issue. Analysts predict a downtick in the annual US CPI from 7.7% to 7.6%. So, the most realistic scenario of the rate hike is 75 basis points. In this case, the US dollar is likely to lose its footing due to the evidence of waning inflationary pressure, but the US dollar's index will hardly escape from the trading range formed at the end of the last week.
The thing is that there is a slim chance of a lower decline in the US CPI. Some analysts do not rule out a drop to 7.3%. If this prediction comes true, it will convince everybody that the federal funds rate is likely to be increased by 50 basis points. If inflation actually slows down stronger than expected, the pound sterling will easily surpass the level of 1.23 and the single European currency will push hard to climb above 1.06.
US Consumer Price Index, y/y
EUR/USD has been oscillating between the two key levels of 1.0500 and 1.0600. In essence, the instrument has been accumulating trading forces. Eventually, the price will gain momentum and escape from any of the borders in that particular direction. The breakthrough strategy is the reasonable way of planning trading positions.
GBP/USD has been trading a similar technical pattern where the borders of the trading range are defined between 1.2200 and 1.2300. A breakout of any of the borders will determine a further direction of the currency pair.
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