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Inflation and recession are two topics of concern for investors in 2023. How soon will the former slow down, and when will the latter come? The future of various financial market assets, including the EURUSD, depends on the answers to these questions. The major currency pair has had a roller coaster ride ahead of the release of U.S. consumer price data. First, investors were led into battle by Fear of the continuation of the Fed's monetary restriction cycle, then by Greed to miss out on the future strengthening of the euro.
There are as many opinions as there are people. If the World Bank and Bloomberg raised their forecasts for global economic growth in 2023, citing the positive effect of China's recovery, the IMF, on the contrary, lowered them. The International Monetary Fund sees global GDP expanding by 2.8% this year and 3% next year, which is lower than the January estimates. In 2022, the figure was +3.4%.
Dynamics of global GDP
As for inflation, the IMF believes that by the end of the year, it will be at 7%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than expected in January. For comparison, in 2022, consumer price growth was 8.7%.
The acceleration of inflation expected by the authoritative organization is bad news for central banks, which may consider their work unfinished and continue to raise rates. This will ultimately result in a recession. However, not everyone shares the same opinion as the International Monetary Fund.
Monetarists, who correctly predicted an inflation surge in 2022–2023, are now starting to sound the alarm about a too sharp slowdown in 2023–2024. The reasons for potential deflation should be sought in the downward dynamics of the money supply. This theory contradicts the conventional wisdom that the surge in consumer prices was caused by supply chain disruptions and the recovery of economies after COVID-19, but it has only recently produced results. Why not do it again?
Dynamics of inflation and money supply
If inflation really starts to slow down sharply, the U.S. dollar will be the first to suffer. The Fed is the leader of the pack and should be one of the first to make decisions to stop the monetary tightening cycle and move on to monetary expansion. If the idea of the Fed's "dovish" reversal comes true, the EURUSD pair will continue to update its highs. To be fair, it should be noted that other central banks will follow the U.S., but this will happen in 2024. Investors, however, are more concerned about the immediate future.
It is more or less transparent. The slowdown in March inflation in the U.S. will push the quotes of the main currency pair up. On the contrary, CPI's unwillingness to do this will become a catalyst for the development of a pullback on EURUSD.
Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, the "bulls" are going on the offensive after the unsuccessful offensive of their opponents. Long positions on EUR/USD, formed on the rebound from the support at 1.0855, are held and occasionally increased. The target is still 1.1335.
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