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Gold is poised to close the year in the positive, marking the first positive year out of the last three, even against the backdrop of capital outflows from ETFs, slowing inflation, and tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Thanks to active purchases by central banks within the process of de-dollarization and an improvement in global risk appetite, the precious metal has added about 13% to its value in 2023. What will happen in 2024?
For the past three years, gold has preferred trading in consolidation. It lacked a breakthrough. According to Wells Fargo, a break above $2,100 per ounce will occur next year, and it will be exciting. The company predicts the precious metal will reach a new level, trading in the $2,100–2,200 range.
SIA Wealth Management notes that "bulls" on XAU/USD feel comfortable above the 2,000 mark for the first time in a long time. Previously, gold only temporarily exceeded this level and then returned back. The asset manager believes that geopolitics is supporting the precious metal—armed conflicts in Ukraine and Israel are far from over, and Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea increase demand for safe-haven assets.
Indeed, the main driver of the XAU/USD rally from October to December was the weakening of the U.S. dollar amid the Fed's dovish pivot. The futures market expects a rate cut in federal funds in March with an 83% probability, putting pressure on the USD index and creating a tailwind for gold.
Dynamics of Gold and the U.S. Dollar
However, there is a clear contradiction in investors' forecasts. They anticipate a soft landing for the U.S. economy while simultaneously predicting a 150 basis points reduction in the Fed's borrowing cost. Such aggressive monetary expansion is only possible in the case of a recession. As of now, a downturn seems unlikely, especially since, according to MasterCard data, retail sales in November–December surged by 3.1%. This indicates consumer activity.
A recession could help the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. According to the dollar smile theory, the USD index rises in anticipation of downturns or during robust GDP expansions. The latter scenario is also not ruled out. If macroeconomic statistics in the United States continue to improve, instead of a soft or hard landing, we can discuss a new economic takeoff. As a result, the factor of American exceptionalism will return to investors' attention, helping the U.S. dollar and creating problems for XAU/USD bulls.
Thus, despite optimistic prospects for gold in 2024, their realization requires the U.S. economy to follow the path of a soft landing. In other cases, the precious metal may disappoint its fans.
Technically, on the daily chart of gold, the upward trend is recovering. The consolidation of quotes above the fair value and the accumulation of pivot levels near the $2,059 mark per ounce indicate the dominance of bulls. In such a situation, it makes sense to hold formed long positions from $1,997 and periodically increase them on pullbacks.
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