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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the English currency and resumed growth no less strong than the previous fall. Thus, at this time, it is not even clear whether the upward trend has resumed. After all, the growth of yesterday and today may just be a deep pullback. So the situation is confusing. I still believe that the pound can show a deeper correction than it showed two days ago. Given that there was no strong information background in recent years, either in the UK or in America (mostly rumors and unverified information), there were no reasons for a new rise in the British pound. Negotiations on a post-Brexit agreement continue to stand still, and the British media occasionally gets information that the parties can not come to an agreement on another issue. For example, the latest information says that Scotland tries to interfere in negotiations between Brussels and London on the issue of fishing, but is refused by the British government. In general, there is no progress, but the pound is growing, which is very strange.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the English currency and fixed above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1357), which now allows us to count on further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.3370). At the same time, I remind you that the movements this week are very chaotic. I do not exclude the possibility that the fall in quotes will resume today and will be no less strong than the movements of the last two days. A new close under the Fibo level of 161.8% will again allow us to expect a slight drop in quotes.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes rebounded from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3199), but very quickly returned to it. Thus, a new rebound from it will again work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2776).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the lower downward trend line. A pullback from this line may allow the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the US dollar and resume the process of falling towards the approximately 1.1500 level. This is a long-term perspective.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no important economic reports in the UK and US on Thursday. The information background was extremely weak, which again did not prevent traders from conducting active trading.
News calendar for the US and UK:
UK - change in retail trade volume (08:00 GMT).
UK - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08:30 GMT).
UK - index of business activity in the service sector (08:30 GMT).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 GMT).
US - PMI for services (13:45 GMT).
On August 21, in the morning, data on retail trade volumes in the UK were released, which were significantly better than traders' expectations. A little later, business activity indices in Britain and the United States will be released.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound was absolutely predictable. Large speculators continued to increase long-contracts (+2.5 thousand) in the reporting week and got rid of short-contracts (-8.5 thousand). Thus, the "Non-commercial" group continued to believe in the Briton. The total number of buy positions opened by speculators has been growing for three weeks in a row, and the number of short contracts in their hands has been declining for three weeks in a row. At the same time, the total number of open long and short contracts for all groups of traders is already approximately the same - 171 thousand and 175 thousand. At the beginning of the new week, traders again actively bought the British dollar and only by the end of the week began to fall in quotes, which very quickly ended. Thus, the new COT report almost in any case should not show a drop in the "bullish" mood of large speculators.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend selling the British currency with a target of 1.2964, if a new close is made at the level of 161.8% (1.3157). Purchases of the British dollar should have been opened after closing above the level of 161.8%, which was fulfilled. The goal is 1.3370. But I recommend that you carefully monitor the dynamics, as it is possible to turn down and start falling.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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