After a very busy and highly volatile previous two weeks, the upcoming trading week will be more relaxed. We will not receive many important macro statistics. Nevertheless, market participants will pay attention to the release of important macroeconomic statistics for the eurozone, China, the US, the UK, Germany.
Take note that the US and Canada are switching to winter time next week. Europe passed the clock hands back last week.
We do not expect any important reports. Although, perhaps, it is worth paying attention to the release of data on China's foreign trade balance, which may cause volatility during the Asian trading session.
This report, published by Eurostat, reflects the change in retail sales. The change in the indicators of the report on retail sales affects the indicator of consumer spending, indirectly indicating the state of the European economy and the level of income of citizens.
A high result strengthens the euro and, conversely, a low result weakens it.
Previous values: -0.3% (-2.0% YoY) in August, +0.3% (-0.9% YoY) in July, -1.2% (-3.7% YoY) expressed) in June, +0.2% (+0.2% in annual terms) in May, -1.3% (+3.9% in annual terms) in April, -0.4% (+0. 8% YoY) in March, +0.3% (+5.0% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+7.8% YoY) in January. Better-than-expected data is likely to have a positive impact on the euro.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
Forecast for September: +2.9% (in annual terms).
The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices and is a key indicator of inflation. Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. Estimating the level of inflation is important for the central bank in determining the parameters of the current monetary policy.
A reading lower than forecast/previous value could trigger a weakening of the Chinese yuan, as low inflation will force the People's Bank of China to maintain an easy monetary policy stance. Conversely, rising inflation and its high level will put pressure on China's central bank to tighten its monetary policy, which in normal economic conditions is assessed as a positive factor for the national currency.
Since the Chinese economy is, according to various estimates, the first in the world (at the moment), Chinese macro data can have a big impact on the financial market and investor sentiment, especially on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region.
Previous values of the indicator (in annual terms): 2.8%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 1.5%, 0.9%, 0 .9% (in January 2022). The data indicate that inflation is accelerating.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.
Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. Rising prices cause the central bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation, and vice versa, when inflation declines or signs of deflation (this is when the purchasing power of money increases and prices for goods and services fall), the central bank usually seeks to devalue the national currency by lowering interest rates to increase aggregate demand.
This indicator (Core Consumer Price Index, Core CPI) is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator for a more accurate estimate (the prices of this category of goods make up about a quarter of the consumer price index. They tend to be very volatile and distort the main trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to basic data).
A high result is bullish for the USD, a low result is bearish.
Previous values: +0.6% (+6.6% YoY) in September, +0.6% (+6.3% YoY) in August, +0.3% (+5.9% YoY) in July, +0.7% (+5.9% YoY) in June, +0.6% (+6.0% YoY) in May, +0.6% (+ 6.2% YoY) in April, +0.3% (+6.5% YoY) in March.
Data better than the forecast and previous values should have a positive impact on the USD.
Forecast for October: +0.5% (+6.9% in annual terms).
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the US labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary claims for unemployment benefits. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.
The result is higher than expected and the growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which negatively affects the US dollar. The drop in the indicator and its low value is a sign of the recovery of the labor market and may have a short-term positive impact on the USD.
Initial and re-claims are expected to remain at pre-coronavirus lows, which is also positive for the dollar, indicating the stability of the US labor market.
Previous (weekly) figures for initial jobless claims: 217,000, 214,000, 226,000, 219,000, 190,000, 209,000, 208,000, 218,000, 228,000, 237,000, 245,000
Previous (weekly) values for repeated claims for unemployment benefits: 1,438,000, 1,383,000, 1,364,000, 1,365,000, 1,346,000, 1,376,000, 1,401,000, 1,401,000, 1,437,000, 1,412,000.
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
During the October meeting, the Bank of Canada unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, although a 75 bps hike was widely expected. Macklem said that bank leaders are nearing the end of the tightening cycle, although they have not yet reached the end.
The Bank of Canada, like many other major world central banks that have embarked on the path of tightening monetary policy, is in a difficult situation - to contain inflation without harming the national economy. Clearly, this decision comes amid growing fears of a deepening global economic downturn.
It is likely that Macklem will once again explain the Bank of Canada's recent decision on the interest rate and, perhaps, give guidance on the prospects for monetary policy.
The tough tone of his speech will help strengthen the Canadian dollar. If he does not touch on the topic of central bank monetary policy, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
The United States and Canada celebrate national holidays. Banks and stock exchanges will be closed, which will affect the trading volumes, primarily during the US trading session.
The UK National Statistics Office will publish a release of a report with preliminary data on the country's GDP for the 3rd quarter. There are two versions of the quarterly GDP published approximately 45 days apart, Preliminary and Final (final release). The pre-release is the earliest and therefore tends to have the most impact on the markets. This report reflects the overall economic performance and has a significant impact on the Bank of England's decision on monetary policy.
GDP growth means an improvement in economic conditions, which makes it possible (with a corresponding increase in inflation) to tighten monetary policy, which, in turn, usually has a positive effect on national currency quotes.
The release of this report usually causes an increase in volatility in GBP quotes. Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on GBP quotes.
Previous values: +0.2%, +0.8%, +1.3%, +1.0%, +5.5%, -1.6% (in Q1 2021).
The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.
Also, along with the quarterly data, the UK National Statistics Office will publish data on the country's GDP for September. This report reflects the overall economic performance and has a significant impact on the BoE's decision on monetary policy. GDP growth means an improvement in economic conditions, which makes it possible (with a corresponding increase in inflation) to tighten monetary policy, which, in turn, usually has a positive effect on national currency quotes.
The release of the quarterly report, and its preliminary release, has the greatest impact on the pound quotes. Monthly data does not affect the pound so much. Nevertheless, market participants who follow the dynamics of its quotes will probably still pay attention to this report.
Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on GBP quotes.
Previous values: -0.3%, +0.2%, -0.6%, +0.5%, -.3%, -0.1%, 0%, +0.7% (in January 2022 of the year).
The level of influence on the markets is average.
Consumer prices account for the bulk of overall inflation. Under normal economic conditions, rising prices force the country's central bank to raise interest rates in order to avoid excessive inflation (above the target level of the central bank). One of the dangerous periods of the economy is stagflation. This is rising inflation in a slowing economy. In this situation, the central bank must act very carefully so as not to harm the recovery of economic growth.
The index (CPI) is published by the EU Statistics Office, is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the European Central bank to assess the level of price stability. Usually, a positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it.
The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the national currency (under normal conditions). Data worse than the previous value and/or forecast will negatively affect the euro.
Previous indicator values: +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (annualized).
Forecast for November: +11.6% (preliminary estimate was +11.6%).
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is medium.
This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. It also reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates growth in the economy, while a low level indicates stagnation. Data worse than previous values and/or forecast may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term. The growth of the indicator will strengthen the USD.
Previous indicator values: 59.9, 58.6, 58.2, 51.5, 50.0, 58.4, 65.2, 59.4, 62.8, 67.2 in January 2022.
November forecast: 60.0.
The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is medium to high.
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