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Gold has risen 15% in the last couple of months, puzzling many investors. TD Securities is looking for a mystery buyer and believes that without it, the price of the precious metal would be $150 an ounce lower than it is now. In my opinion, the reasons for the XAUUSD rally should be sought in the change in the Fed's worldview and the loss of the U.S. dollar's function as a major safe-haven asset.
The slowdown in U.S. inflation reduces the degree of determination of the Fed. The central bank no longer needs to utter loud phrases that it will sacrifice the economy to defeat high prices. On the contrary, the delayed effect of monetary restriction on GDP forces the Fed to proceed with caution. The Fed is better off going with its gut, depending on incoming data, and raising the rate by 25 bps. This is the scenario the futures market considers the baseline scenario, giving it an almost 80% probability in February.
Dynamics and forecasts of inflation in the USA
The slowdown in the rate of the Fed's monetary policy tightening is putting the U.S. dollar at risk, because the different pace of rate hikes compared to the European Central Bank allows EURUSD to spread its wings. As a result, gold moved within arm's length of the so-called gravity zone above $1,900 an ounce. Entering it, as a rule, pulls the precious metal to the psychologically important level of $2,000.
XAUUSD is supported by fears of approaching recession in the American and global economies. According to the World Bank, the latter is walking on the razor's edge of the recession due to high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening by the world's leading central banks, the armed conflict in Ukraine and the outbreak of COVID-19 in China. The organization cut its global GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 3% in June to 1.7%. If it turns out to be accurate, this decade will be the first since the 1930s that the gloabl economy has gone through two recessions at once.
The approaching global recession lends a shoulder on the precious metal as much as the global shocks to the U.S. dollar in 2022. However, back then, the U.S. currency drew strength from rising Treasury yields amid a move in inflation towards its peak and an aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed, now the times are different. Jupiter Asset Management predicts that 10-year rates will fall below 2% this year due to strong demand for these securities amid an impending recession and a dovish shift by the Fed. If that's the case, gold will continue to rally.
The attitude of fans of the physical asset will probably change. In 2022, capital outflows from specialized exchange-traded funds totaled $3 billion. As a result, ETF assets shrank to $202.7 billion. Their growth will support the XAUUSD.
Technically, on the weekly chart, gold broke the downward trend due to the combination of Three Indians and Double Bottom patterns. While the quotes are above the $1,840 pivot point, the situation is completely controlled by the bulls. In this regard, we focus on buying towards $1,915 and $1,965 per ounce.
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