我们的团队有超过700万的操盘手！
我们每天都在一起努力改善交易。我们得到了很高的成绩，并继续前进。
世界各地数以百万计的操盘手的认可是我们工作的最大赞赏！ 您做出了您的选择，我们将尽一切努力来满足您的期望！
我们是一个共同的伟大团队！
InstaSpot. 自豪地为您工作！
When a currency ignores the negatives and rises sharply on the positives, there is a sense that it is ready to break the downward trend. Good news from the Australian labor market, rumors that the Reserve Bank will continue the monetary restriction cycle, support from iron ore, and stability of the Chinese yuan allowed AUD/USD to soar above 0.67. Meanwhile, the pair grew faster after the Fed's May meeting and U.S. inflation statistics than it fell on American employment. Is it really ready to change the trend?
Record low Australian unemployment rates, the first local budget surplus since 2008, and an unexpected resumption of a cash rate increase in May after a pause in April breathed new life into the "Aussie." According to materials presented for Bloomberg, the RBA considered options for increasing borrowing costs to 4.8%, significantly higher than the current 3.85%. In two out of three scenarios, such a high level of cash rate was foreseen to return excessively high inflation to target. This would make the Reserve Bank almost the leading "hawk" among the G10 currency issuers.
Dynamics of Central Banks' base rates
However, it is unlikely that Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe and his colleagues are ready to go that far. Inflation is starting to slow down. This is a global trend. The Fed is ready to stop monetary restriction, fearing a recession. The RBA faces the specific risk of breaking something. In my opinion, May's cash rate hike is the penultimate, if not the last. The market is overestimating the Reserve Bank's capabilities.
The same can be said regarding China's economy, Australia's main trading partner. Investors believed that its rapid recovery after COVID-19 would become a catalyst for strengthening the yuan and related proxy currencies. However, the stability of USD/CNY is deceptive. It is more related to the weakening of the U.S. dollar than to the strength of the yuan. The trade-weighted exchange rate of the Chinese currency continues to decline. This indicates an overestimation of the potential for recovery of the Chinese economy.
Dynamics of the trade-weighted yuan index
The rebound of iron ore, a key component of Australian exports, from its lowest level since the start of 2022, should be viewed with a degree of skepticism. Yes, in April, the import of this raw material increased by 5% to 90.44 million tons, but the "bearish" trend remains in force. And this creates headwinds for the "Aussie."
Thus, the Australian dollar's trump cards are not as strong as they seem. Meanwhile, its American counterpart is gradually spreading its wings due to the Fed's firm intention to keep the federal funds rate at a plateau, at least until the end of the year. The market did not believe this and paid the price.
Technically, a Broadening Wedge pattern formed on the AUD/USD daily chart. The formation of rising highs and lows speaks of a fierce battle between "bulls" and "bears." Although, it seems that the sellers are winning. The pair's inability to return above 0.6755 is a reason to open shorts.
*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。
InstaSpot分析评论将让您充分了解市场趋势！ 作为InstaSpot的客户，您将获得大量的免费服务以实现有效的交易。
