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26.05.202309:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美國通脹數據的發布可能不會對市場產生太大影響（歐元/美元可能會局部上漲，美元/日元可能會下跌）

目前，美国政府债务门槛的谈判仍然是市场关注的焦点，直到解决这个问题，可能会在正面和负面方面占据主导地位，投资者的焦点今天将转向重要的通胀数据发布。

市场关注的焦点将集中在个人消费支出核心价格指数数据的发布以及美国人收入和支出指标的值。

根据共识预测，个人消费支出基础价格指数应该保持月度和年度增长率，分别为0.3%和4.6%。与此同时，个人消费支出价格指数，这是一个稍微更广泛的指标，应该在年度比较中下降到3.9%，而不是4.2%，但在月度计算中应该明显增加，4月份增加了0.4%，而不是3月份的0.1%。预计4月份个人收入增长了0.4%，而不是3月份的0.3%，而支出增长了0.4%，而3月份为0%。

市场可能如何对这些经济统计数据做出反应？

当然，在考虑政府债务违约的高概率的同时，投资者并没有忘记，即使发生这种极端事件，生活也不会结束，因此，在处理这个问题后，所有注意力将转向美联储货币政策的决定，该决定将在6月14日会议后公布。

提醒一下，早些时候，美联储密切关注的正是个人消费支出核心价格指数的动态，认为它最准确地反映了实际消费者通货膨胀的动态。因此，在这些数据发布的背景下，考虑到国家经济的整体情况，美联储将面临极为困难的任务。它必须通过将主要利率上调0.25％至5.50％来应对通货膨胀下降的放缓，但在经济增长放缓、银行业动荡和其他一系列问题的背景下，它不应该这样做。这就是为什么在美联储投票成员中在这个问题上没有统一意见的原因。

关于市场参与者对数据的反应，很可能会是冷淡的。如果数字符合预测或略低，这可能会激发那些希望利率不会在6月14日上调，而国会终于就国债问题达成协议的投资者进行有限的股票购买和美元出售。但如果数字显示更高的值或通货膨胀在人民收支背景下上升，那么预计股票、商品和原材料资产的需求将继续下降，美元将继续走强，因为不仅违约问题，而且预期加息的主题也将显著增加。

总的来说，观察最近关于国债谈判的一切，我们认为协议可能会在下周初达成，这可能会成为市场局部反弹的好机会，美元汇率也会有所下降。

今日预测：

Exchange Rates 26.05.2023 analysis
Exchange Rates 26.05.2023 analysis

EUR/USD

該貨幣對在1.0700的稍高水平找到支撐。市場上流傳的謠言是，美國國債協議可能在不久的將來達成，這支持了它。價格上漲到1.0760以上可能會導致該貨幣對恢復到1.0830。

USD/JPY
該貨幣對在謠言的推動下出現了局部反轉，即美國國債協議可能在不久的將來達成。在這個波動中，它可能會下跌到139.40以下，並進一步下跌到137.65。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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