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14.06.202308:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美元重量级无法承受通货膨胀和美联储利率的负担

Exchange Rates 14.06.2023 analysis

由于美联储利率的不确定性和不断上升的通货膨胀率,美元越来越难以维持。美国的宏观经济数据也不明朗,与欧元的对抗也加剧了这种情况。欧元最近表现出短暂的上涨,这种情况偶尔会出现。

据分析师观察,EUR/USD汇率的上升动力正在增强,欧元正在加强。在这种背景下,该组合突破了1.0800的关键水平,但未能保持其地位。在6月14日星期三早上,EUR/USD汇率在1.0781附近波动,试图弥补失去的地位。

Exchange Rates 14.06.2023 analysis

在美国CPI指数发布通胀数据后,欧元稳步上涨,美元下跌。根据最新报告,进一步的通货紧缩压力导致基础CPI指数低于预期值。因此,美国5月份以CPI指数衡量的通货膨胀率降至4%(之前为4.9%)。

根据美国劳工统计局的数据,这一数据低于市场预期的4.1%。同时,除食品和能源成本外的核心CPI通胀率下降至5.3%(之前为5.5%)。按月计算,消费者价格指数和核心指数分别增长了0.1%和0.4%。

根据分析师的估计,目前由于电力和食品价格的原因,美国的通货膨胀已经稳定。在这种情况下,美联储放弃进一步收紧货币政策的可能性增强。然而,一些专家认为,当前的情况并不会阻止监管机构继续提高利率。美联储货币政策的转变的催化剂可能是有些矛盾的通货膨胀报告。

在这种情况下,美元难以保持其获得的地位,并经常表现出下跌。股票指数和美元的进一步走向将由即将于6月14日星期三举行的美联储会议决定。在会议上还将决定利率问题。在CPI报告之后,市场降低了6月和7月加息的可能性。

TD Securities的货币策略师认为,由于通胀数据“没有显示出显著进展”,这是美联储再次将利率上调25个基点至5.25%-5.50%的有力论据。 “FOMC可能已经进入了风险管理阶段,而在过去一年中迅速累积加息和银行崩溃后的不确定性增长后,美联储官员变得谨慎。如果通胀数据表明美国经济足够强大,可以在7月再次上调利率,那么更理想的选择是现在上调利率”,TD Securities总结道。

在当前的形势下,欧元/美元汇率突破了1.0800的关键阻力位,表现出了继续卖出美元的趋势。一些分析师认为,这对货币对的价格波动与美元的走势轨迹完全一致。然而,欧洲央行和美联储在货币政策方面的差异以及它们调整利率的计划在欧元/美元汇率的动态中起着很大的作用。

许多市场参与者预计,美联储很可能会保持利率不变,而欧洲央行则会提高利率,这将支持欧元/美元汇率。据分析师称,“鹰派”言论表明欧洲央行将进一步提高利率,尽管这可能会稍微恶化该地区的经济指标。

根据初步预测,绿色美元在不久的将来将继续对主要货币走软,尤其是对欧元。在这种情况下,EUR/USD可能会达到1.1000的水平,但这种反弹将是短暂的。在这种情况下,美联储将提高关键利率,这将在美国财政部开始收回流动性的背景下使美元回升。专家们注意到美联储发出的一些信号,其中包括警告可能在7月进一步提高利率的预警。根据分析师的观点,通胀和经济数据的降温足以说服监管机构采取措施缓解货币政策紧缩。

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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