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When the central bank puts an end to the cycle of rate hikes, the markets start anticipating rate cuts. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has made it clear that it won't rush to ease its monetary policy, regardless of how the British economy may feel. This, along with disappointing October employment data in the United States, has led to a sharp rise in GBP/USD quotes to their highest levels since September.
After 14 consecutive acts of monetary tightening, the BoE decided to take a break in the last two meetings. However, in November, 6 out of 9 MPC members voted in favor of keeping borrowing costs at 5.25%, compared to 5 out of 9 in early autumn. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the tightening of monetary policy is working, resulting in a decrease in consumer prices. Nevertheless, inflation is expected to continue falling, so there is no talk of a repo rate reduction.
Dynamics of the Repo Rate and Inflation in Britain
The Bank of England predicts that the dovish pivot will occur in the third quarter of 2024 and will be the only act of monetary expansion in the next year. The spot market expects it to start in August and forecasts a drop in borrowing costs to 4.5–4.75% by the end of 2024.
Despite Bailey and his colleagues forecasting another year of stagflation for the UK economy in their updated assessments, their verdicts have met market expectations. The BoE has sent a hawkish message to financial markets. It rightly believes that the work to bring inflation to the 2% target is not yet complete, and it is prepared to resume tightening its monetary policy if necessary.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, on the other hand, seems to have inspired less confidence among investors. He has frequently discussed progress in addressing high prices and has not expressed concern that inflation could reach a new peak due to a strong economy. As a result, the U.S. dollar received another blow after the Department of Treasury decided to issue bonds in a lower amount than investors had expected. The third shock was the report on the U.S. labor market for October. Employment increased by 150,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, failing to meet Bloomberg experts' forecasts.
Dynamics and Structure of American Employment
The U.S. labor market is cooling and will continue to do so, likely leading to a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth from 4.9% to 0.9% in the fourth quarter. The divergence in economic growth between the United States and the United Kingdom will no longer be as substantial as it was in July–September, providing a foundation for a GBP/USD correction. The same can be said about the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The spot market expects more acts of monetary tightening from Powell and his colleagues than from the BoE.
Technically, on the GBP/USD daily chart, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern has been clearly observed. The pair has left the consolidation range of 1.21–1.23 and has determined the direction of its further movement. The recommendation is to buy on pullbacks. The initial targets for longs are 1.248 and 1.258.
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