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16.05.202401:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 日本央行不會允許日圓貶值。美元/日圓概覽

在日本央行於4月25日和26日的貨幣政策會議上發布意見摘要後，日元對美元有所升值。摘要中就兩個對日元而言相當重要的議題——加息和減少購債，提出了相當激進的意見。文件進一步確認了日本央行正準備一系列加息行動，並將減少對日本政府長期國債（JGB）的購買。會議紀要明確暗示，央行將會應對持續的日元貶值問題。

雖然加息這一問題相對明顯，但減少購債則是一個較為模糊的舉措。自1993年以來，日本中央政府一直在運行預算赤字，並通過不斷發行債券來籌集資金，這些債券由於接近零收益率，而對外國投資者缺乏吸引力，因此由日本央行購買。美國國債（UST）與日本國債（JGB）之間的收益率差距越大，日元就變得越弱。

Exchange Rates 16.05.2024 analysis

如果日本央行（BOJ）準備轉向量化緊縮，那麼誰來資助政府呢？顯然，需要實現可持續的預算盈餘，這在目前是不可能的，或者增加外國投資者對債券的吸引力，而這只有通過提高收益率才能實現。反過來，這又會因為更高的利息支付而增加預算的負擔。

可能的策略是提高家庭實際收入，這也解釋了為何對平均工資動態的預測如此關注。收入增長將有助於將通脹保持在2%左右，合理化加息，從而提高債券收益率。

是否果真如此，只有時間才能揭曉，但日元疲軟階段似乎即將結束，因為負面因素明顯多於正面因素。

報告週內，日元凈空頭頭寸大幅減少24億美元，至-109億美元。雖然看跌傾向依舊存在，但空頭頭寸連續兩週下降，價格已不再顯示美元/日元進一步上漲的高概率。

Exchange Rates 16.05.2024 analysis

日元目前仍在160水平附近交易，但再次測試該水平的機會較低。客觀上，由於利差巨大，日元應該走弱，但從長期來看，情況將變得有利於日元。問題在於這些變化何時會足以使日元因客觀原因而開始升值，而不是通過貨幣干預。對於投機者來說，押注日元走弱變得風險過高。因此，最明顯的策略是在美元/日元試圖上升時賣出，預期全球反轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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