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25.07.202400:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美元/日元:日元發生了什麼事?

今天,美國美元表現出複雜的動態走勢。美元指数最初達到了兩週高點104.27,但隨後逆轉,朝另一個方向移動。主要的美元貨幣對也相應調整,跟隨綠背的步伐。然而,無論美元升值還是貶值,USD/JPY對一直在下行。這種“異常”現象可以歸因於多種原因。

Exchange Rates 25.07.2024 analysis

首先,讓我們來看看兩週前日本當局進行的連續兩次貨幣干預,當時美元/日元匯率接近 162 水平。據日本新聞機構共同社報道,7月11日進行了220億美元的貨幣干預,隨後在7月12日又進行了130億美元的干預。政府和貨幣當局的代表保持沉默:財務省和日本銀行尚未宣布這些干預措施,所有相關問題均未得到解答(通常,日本當局會在幾個月後宣布干預措施)。

這意味著美元/日元匯率因相當強勁的基本面因素開始下降。

此外,由於美國消費者物價指數的放緩以及聯邦儲備局主席 Jerome Powell 的鴿派言論,美金進一步加強了下行趨勢。市場認為9月份會議降息的概率上升至95%,而11月或12月額外降息的可能性被評估為50/50。

唐納德·特朗普上週在選戰中強化了他的地位,幫助美金回升。然而,首先,這種“幫助”是短暫的(拜登退出競選後,特朗普的勝算有所下降),其次,美元/日元交易員幾乎忽略了美金的增長。買方僅能進行適度的修正,讓空頭以更有利的價格進行賣出。

本週,美元/日元匯率繼續走自己的路。不論美金升值還是貶值,價格固執地保持下降趨勢。是什麼驅動了賣方的這種堅持?(未確認的)貨幣干預的影響是否會持續第三週?

在我看來,下行動力的主要原因是有關日本銀行可能在7月會議上採取行動的鷹派傳言。會議定於7月30日和31日舉行,剛好還有一週時間。

市場信心增強,認為日本央行將加息10個基點,朝正常化貨幣政策邁出一步。原因是持續的通脹,這仍高於銀行的目標水平。

根據上週發布的數據,6月份整體消費者物價指數同比上升2.8%,與上個月持平。剔除新鮮食品的核心指數上升2.6%(為過去三個月來的最高值),5月則上升2.5%。剔除食品和能源的通脹率為2.2%(相比5月的2.1%)。

日本銀行關注的關鍵通脹指標已超過目標2%超過兩年,並且在過去兩個月(5月和6月)有所加速。

日本銀行官員近期表達了對通脹上升的關切,表示可能收緊貨幣政策。特別是央行行長上田和夫在一次演講中提到,監管機構可能在即將召開的會議上加息。值得注意的是,這些言論是在6月份CPI數據發布之前作出的,該數據顯示核心通脹加速。

這些基本因素的結合正在推動美元/日元匯率下行。如果美國第二季度經濟增長數據和PCE核心指數增長報告出現“紅色”,這一下降趨勢可能會顯著加劇。這些關鍵報告定於周四和周五發布,其結果可能對美元/日元匯率產生重大影響。

從技術角度來看,USD/JPY貨幣對目前位於H4和D1時間框架上的布林帶指標的下沿,低於所有的Ichimoku指標線,這已經形成了一個看跌的「線隊」信號。在週線圖上,當該貨幣對突破154.00目標(Kijun-sen線)時,Ichimoku指標同樣會形成這個信號。換句話說,「技術」方面也顯示出做空頭寸的優先性,目標為153.50和153.00。鑑於下行趨勢的強勁,除非前述的美國宏觀經濟報告干預並支撐美國美元,否則很有可能在本週內測試這些水平。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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