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04.12.202412:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 黃金仍抱有希望

在美國大選中共和黨勝利後，金價的下跌對XAU/USD多頭來說是一個真正的震驚，但這並未使他們偏離軌道。黃金被視為特朗普時代貿易政策的主要受益者之一，但實際上，它失去了一些辛苦得來的漲幅。無論是法國的政治危機、韓國宣佈戒嚴，還是以色列與真主黨間停火協議的破裂，都未能支持黃金。然而，高盛仍預測金價將上漲至每盎司3000美元，且不只有他們持這種看法。

Capital Economics認為，儘管面臨美元走強和美國國債收益率上升等強大阻力，金價仍有可能上漲。XAU/USD的上漲將由其他因素驅動——央行購買黃金和來自中國需求的復甦。

通常認為，黃金在美聯儲放寬貨幣政策期間上漲，而在央行加息時下跌。然而，2022年至2023年，縱使美聯儲進行近幾十年來最激進的貨幣緊縮，XAU/USD價格仍上揚。這其中的關鍵在於央行創紀錄的黃金購買，作為去美元化以及儲備多元化的努力的一部分，還有中國對黃金的巨大需求。

金磚國家的黃金儲備占比動態

Exchange Rates 04.12.2024 analysis

在2024年，這些推動因素似乎已經停止運作。中國人民銀行（PBoC）已經將近六個月未購買黃金。然而，Donald Trump威脅對來自聯盟國家的商品徵收100%進口關稅，這可能重燃央行對黃金的興趣。去美元化不一定意味著創造一種競爭貨幣，它也可以表現在外匯儲備中多樣化，偏好黃金。

創紀錄的高金價已經冷卻了亞洲買家的需求。然而，隨著XAU/USD的回調，需求可能會上升。北京尚未解決自己的經濟問題，包括房地產危機和疲弱的國內需求。Trump的保護主義可能使這些問題惡化。在這種情況下，黃金可能會被視為比股票和債券更好的選擇。

中國黃金需求的結構和動態

Exchange Rates 04.12.2024 analysis
Exchange Rates 04.12.2024 analysis

因此，XAU/USD 上升趨勢的舊有且可靠的推動力可能再次支持多頭。但這是否足以恢復上升趨勢？Donald Trump 的關稅和財政激勵政策可能加劇通脹，迫使美聯儲暫停降息，從而強化美元並推高美國國債收益率。黃金能否抵擋這樣的逆風？

在技術層面上，黃金日線圖中，一個小型形態（名為 Spike and Shelf）已在主形態 1-2-3 中形成。若每盎司 2620 美元的支撐位失守，將引發拋售。若每盎司 2660 美元的阻力位成功突破，將設立多頭頭寸。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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