The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
Borussia is one of the most titled football clubs in Germany, which has repeatedly proved to fans: the spirit of competition and leadership will certainly lead to success. Trade in the same way that sports professionals play the game: confidently and actively. Keep a "pass" from Borussia FC and be in the lead with InstaSpot!
法國政府的辭職是否會引發金融市場的動蕩？Jerome Powell 是否會暗示美聯儲的貨幣政策寬鬆週期暫停？這兩個問題正給投資者帶來壓力，導致歐元/美元在窄幅交投區間內整固。主要貨幣對如同一個緊繃的彈簧，準備在美國11月就業報告出爐前就要爆發。
法國總統 Emmanuel Macron 敦促議員不要推翻政府，呼籲他們不要將個人野心置於國家利益之上。然而，議會中的左右派系均聲稱總理 Michel Barnier 和他的政府已與法國公眾脫節。就在不信任投票即將到來之際，總理警告此舉可能會在金融市場引發動盪。目前，法國與德國債券之間的收益率差正在縮小，有助於歐元/美元的穩定。
法國與德國債券之間的收益率差動態
如果政府被罷黜，這將標誌著自1958年第五共和國成立以來，法國政府最短的任期。法國將在政治和經濟上進入未開發的領域。投資者將面臨收益率差距可能進一步擴大的可能性——這一差距已達到自2012年以來的最高水平。如果這種情況發生，歐元兌美元匯率的平價將越來越近。
歐元之所以能穩住陣腳，是因為投資者對歐洲央行於12月份削減存款利率50個基點的預期有所下降。據克羅地亞國家銀行行長Boris Vujcic表示，貨幣寬鬆措施必須謹慎進行，因為道路非常滑。他的芬蘭同行Olli Rehn也支持留出一些回旋餘地給歐洲央行。
歐洲央行12月減息50個基點的概率
美元面臨壓力的原因，包括「特朗普交易」動能減弱，以及美聯儲在12月貨幣政策寬鬆週期暫停的可能性從44%降至26%。投資者對於唐納德·特朗普的計劃能否落實持懷疑態度。此外，他的一些言論具有爭議性。為何在美元已經無需質疑其強勢的條件下，還要用對金磚國家施加關稅威脅來捍衛美元呢？
存在風險的是，Jerome Powell可能會改變路線，就像他在第一季度末所做的那樣。當時，市場已經預期美聯儲會在2023年末轉向鴿派，但通脹加速迫使美聯儲主席重新考慮。現在，CPI和PCE的增長率再次上升。歷史會重演嗎？
在每日EUR/USD圖表上形成了兩個內包線，這表示了重大的不確定性。可能謹慎的做法是設置掛單：在1.0535美元買入歐元兌美元，在1.0480美元賣出。
*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。
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