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27.12.202400:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 黃金 (XAU/USD):2024年12月26日至31日動態情境分析

Exchange Rates 27.12.2024 analysis

十二月份聯邦儲備委員會會議的結果導致美元顯著強勢,從而使黃金和白銀的需求減少。雖然貴金屬被視為避險資產,但它們無法產生投資收益。當全球央行,特別是聯邦儲備委員會,保持緊縮的貨幣政策或釋出進一步緊縮的預期時,這些資產的需求往往會下降。

儘管如此,黃金價格的上升趨勢依然存在。多年的牛市趨勢可能會繼續,儘管其幅度可能不如前幾個月明顯。

Exchange Rates 27.12.2024 analysis

績效回顧

在過去一個月中,XAU/USD 大約下跌了 3.5%,一度跌至 9 月中旬的低點約 2537.00。然而,它仍然保持了長期的看漲動能並反彈,儘管尚未超過在 10 月底創下的 2790.00 的歷史高位。

自那時起,價格主要位於 2721.00 和 2580.00 之間的區間內。

截至撰稿時,XAU/USD 貨幣對交易價格接近 2630.00,並正在測試小時圖中 200 期移動平均線所指示的關鍵短期阻力位。

若突破此水平,並突破 2646.00 的阻力(4 小時圖上的 200 期 EMA),將表示價格完全回到了中期看漲區域,並位於日線圖的上升通道內。此變動可能推動價格朝向通道的上邊界,該邊界介於 2750.00 和 2790.00 之間。

未來數周甚至數月間,這一區域可能成為目標。

Exchange Rates 27.12.2024 analysis

替代情境

在另一個情境下,若支撐位2620.00被突破,然後再突破本地支撐位2608.00,可能會出現下跌訊號。最近的目標是支撐區2580.00和2542.00(日線圖上的144期均線)。

我們不太可能看到更深度的跌入關鍵中期支撐位2480.00(日線圖上的200期均線)以下區域。總體來說,XAU/USD仍然處於看漲區域。

  • 長期:在2155.00、2100.00、2060.00(週線圖上的200期均線)以上的關鍵支撐位以上。
  • 中期:在2500.00、2480.00(日線圖上的200期均線)以上的關鍵支撐位以上。

優勢仍然在於長期買入倉位。

支撐位:2620.00、2608.00、2600.00、2580.00、2542.00、2500.00、2480.00阻力位:2630.00、2646.00、2668.00、2700.00、2721.00、2750.00、2790.00、2800.00、2900.00、3000.00

交易情境

主要情境:

  • 買入市價或買入止損2642.00、2648.00
  • 止損:2605.00
  • 目標:2668.00、2700.00、2721.00、2750.00、2790.00、2800.00、2900.00、3000.00

替代情境:

  • 賣出止損2605.00
  • 止損:2642.00
  • 目標:2600.00、2580.00、2542.00、2500.00、2480.00

*) 目標對應支撐/阻力位。雖然這些位不一定總能達到,但可以作為規劃和執行交易策略的有用基準。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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