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30.12.202409:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 英鎊在終點線失去勝利

僅靠一個中央銀行難以走遠。英國銀行(BoE)謹慎的策略曾經使英鎊受益良多。Andrew Bailey和他的同事在降低重購利率時採取的漸進方法,加上G7中最快的經濟增長,讓英鎊成為G10貨幣中的佼佼者。然而,唐納德·特朗普在美國重新掌權,促使美元一路追上,讓英鎊兌美元的多頭失去了勝利果實。

儘管是最早啟動貨幣寬鬆週期的國家之一,英國銀行最近在重購利率下調上的暫停,導致其利率在2024年結束時高於聯邦儲備銀行的基準利率。預計在2025年,美國和英國都會進行兩輪貨幣寬鬆措施,這將使得英鎊兌美元的買家和賣家都沒有明顯的優勢。然而,經濟增長的分歧預示著另一種局面。

中央銀行利率動態

Exchange Rates 30.12.2024 analysis

在今年上半年,由於工黨在國會選舉中的勝利,英國經濟看似順利前行。工黨承諾讓英國成為G7中的領先經濟體,最初這一目標似乎觸手可及。然而,在保守黨執政期間發現的預算赤字,以及隨後的加稅措施,讓GBP/USD愛好者的情緒變得黯淡。財政大臣Rachel Reeves宣布的措施起初似乎可以提振GDP,但現在顯然,它們將拖慢經濟增長。

在第三季度,英國的GDP增長停滯,第二季度的數據從+0.5%被下調至+0.4%。英國央行預測第四季度將不會有經濟增長。相比之下,亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行預測美國GDP增長達到3.1%。這巨大的差異對GBP/USD多頭構成了一個重大挑戰。

英國經濟動態

Exchange Rates 30.12.2024 analysis

情勢可能進一步惡化。如果Donald Trump成功實現他的競選承諾,美國與英國之間的經濟增長差距可能會擴大。財政刺激可能推動美國GDP增長,而貿易關稅可能阻礙英國經濟。實現「美國優先」議程可能會對GBP/USD匯率造成顯著的負面影響。

Exchange Rates 30.12.2024 analysis

對於英鎊多頭來說,僅剩的一線希望是:國會能限制特朗普的權力。儘管共和黨佔多數,特朗普提出將債務上限延長至2027年並增加其規模的最初提案仍遭到自己政黨成員的阻止。那麼財政刺激措施呢?它們是否可能面臨類似的反對?

從技術角度來看,在每日的GBP/USD圖表上,英鎊多頭正試圖形成一個“雙重底”反轉形態,並將該貨幣對的報價推回到1.259–1.278的合理價值範圍內。如果成功,則繼續回升至1.267和1.270的可能性將增加。反之,若從這些水準被拒絕,則可能為英鎊創造賣出機會,特別是當英鎊買家未能突破1.259的阻力時。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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