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02.01.202508:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 黃金令人意外。它會繼續保持這個勢頭嗎？

這還有很長的路要走！在黃金於2024年展現出色表現之後，銀行和投資公司預測2025年會有進一步的行情上漲。Citi指出，在過去六年中有五年，當貴金屬在前一年漲幅超過20%時，翌年其平均表現為15%。《金融時報》的專家提供了一致預測，預計增幅為+7%。但實際情況會如何發展呢？

2024年對黃金來說是非同凡響的一年──不僅創下自2010年以來的最佳表現，或是歷史上最大的年度漲幅之一。這不僅包括創下40次創紀錄新高及30%的峰值增長，標誌著自1978年以來的最佳軌跡。也不僅因為黃金最終實現了27%的收益，且表現超過了S&P 500和大多數其他商品市場資產。真正引人注目的是，這些成就是在不利條件下取得的：美國美元走強，和國債收益率飆升。

黃金與其他商品市場表現
Exchange Rates 02.01.2025 analysis

2023年，類似的情況發生了，當時聯邦儲備局以40年來最激進的步伐提高利率。儘管如此，美元指數穩步上升，美國國債收益率也提高，然而金價仍然上漲。歷史上，美元走強和債券收益率上升對XAU/USD多頭構成了重大挑戰。這是否意味著金融市場的典範轉移？

銀行和投資公司對2025年的金價預測持適度樂觀態度也不足為奇。《金融時報》共識預測顯示增長7%。在分析師中，Goldman Sachs最為樂觀，預測價格可能達到每盎司3,000美元。相反，Barclays和Macquarie預測價格將下滑至2,500美元。Macquarie指出，儘管受到美元走強的挑戰，但來自消費者和中央銀行的需求將有助於防止更大幅度的下跌。

XAU/USD多頭對於利率下降、地緣政治因素和中央銀行購買充滿希望。即便貨幣政策放寬的步伐放緩，美聯儲仍預期進一步降低借貸成本。這一轉變可能會將部分6.7萬億美元的貨幣市場基金資本引導至以黃金為導向的交易所交易基金（ETF）。

Exchange Rates 02.01.2025 analysis

黃金在十一月達到歷史新高後經歷了大幅回落，這是由於「買消息，賣事實」原則所驅動。XAU/USD的多頭對於唐納·川普可能重返美國政壇持謹慎態度。一旦川普的回歸成為現實，許多人開始鎖定他們的利潤。然而，不確定性依然存在，川普的政策預計將加劇金融市場的波動性，這可能會持續支撐金價。

從技術角度看，黃金的日線圖顯示「尖峰和側邊」形態的持續形成。從每盎司2,645美元的公價反彈，可能為建立或增加空頭頭寸提供基礎。相反，若突破此水平，則表明有進一步購買機會的潛力。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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