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06.01.202506:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD 概覽: 每週預覽——歐元的新考驗

Exchange Rates 06.01.2025 analysis

EUR/USD 貨幣對在週五出現復甦,此前週四經歷了大幅下跌。在週四,歐元下跌超過 100 點,這相當顯著,因為宏觀經濟日曆幾乎是空白的。然而,歐元如此下跌並不令人驚訝。該貨幣對可以獨立於宏觀經濟或基本因素而下跌、上漲或保持不變。市場價格的形成總是受到一些全球性影響,我們經常討論這些影響。這意味著,如果有重大的全球性因素出現,例如任何央行潛在的貨幣政策變動,即便該變動從未實際發生,市場也可能提前開始對這一可能性定價。正如所說,「買傳聞,賣事實」,或反之亦然。

因此,這一事件可能尚未發生,或者可能永遠不會發生,但如果有強有力的基本因素在未來或已在發揮作用,市場可能會在數週或數月內反映出這一影響。我們在週四所看到的僅僅是過去幾個月中觀察到的情況的延續:歐元的下跌。這種下跌有很多理由,而且自2024年以來就一直在醞釀,正如我們多次討論的那樣。

當然,歐元的下跌不會永遠持續下去,但從較高時間框架的技術分析來看,持續16年的長期下降趨勢仍未結束。如果是這樣,那麼市場上的任何人為何應期望歐元上漲,當它已經下跌了16年?宏觀經濟因素只會影響該貨幣對的短期走勢。例如,美國疲弱的經濟數據可能暫時削弱美元,但這不會扭轉長期的下降趨勢。目前的全球趨勢和因素非常明顯:美聯儲已經在降息,但過程非比尋常地緩慢和不情願。與此同時,歐洲央行反而比市場預期更積極地放寬貨幣政策。

在即將到來的一周,歐元區將迎來幾個值得注意的事件,雖然數量有限。主要亮點將是德國和歐元區12月份的通脹報告,以及不太具影響力的零售銷售和失業率報告。其他報告對該貨幣對的走勢影響會更小。美國的宏觀經濟數據可能會引起更大關注,我們會在 GBP/USD 文章中討論。然而,本周不太可能看到即便是中期下降趨勢的結束。最好的情況下,歐元可以期待一個修正。

Exchange Rates 06.01.2025 analysis

截至1月6日,過去五個交易日EUR/USD貨幣對的平均波動幅度為82點,屬於「中等」。我們預計這對貨幣會在星期一於1.0227到1.0391的範圍內波動。上方線性回歸通道趨勢向下,顯示全球下降趨勢持續。此外,CCI指標再次進入超賣區域,並形成了新的看漲背離。然而,這個信號僅僅暗示最多可能的修正。

最近的支撐位:

  • S1 – 1.0254
  • S2 – 1.0132
  • S3 – 1.0010

最近的阻力位:

  • R1 – 1.0376
  • R2 – 1.0498
  • R3 – 1.0620

交易建議:

EUR/USD貨幣對可能會繼續其下降趨勢。近幾個月來,我們持續指出中期內歐元貶值的預期,強烈支持整體看跌前景,這看來還未結束。市場似乎已充分反映了美聯儲未來所有的降息,使得美元在中期內不太可能顯著疲弱。

短倉仍有意義,目標設定在1.0254和1.0227,只要價格保持在移動平均線以下。如果您採用「純」技術交易方法考慮做多,價格升到移動平均線之上,可將目標設定在1.0498。無論如何,任何向上的波動目前都應該被視為修正。

插圖說明:

線性回歸通道有助於確定當前趨勢。如果兩個通道趨向一致,則表明強趨勢。

移動平均線(設置:20,0, 平滑)定義短期趨勢並指導交易方向。

Murray水平作為運動和修正的目標水平。

波動水平(紅線)表示根據當前波動率預測的未來24小時價格範圍。

CCI指標:如進入超賣區域(低於-250)或超買區域(高於+250),則預示即將在相反方向進行趨勢反轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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