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外汇市场分析
Fundamental analysis

08.01.202508:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 1月8日需要注意什麼？新手們應留意的基本事件分析

宏觀經濟報告分析：

Exchange Rates 08.01.2025 analysis

週三有多個宏觀經濟事件安排，儘管沒有哪項至關重要。德國將發布零售銷售報告，而美國將公佈失業救濟申請數據及私人部門就業變動（ADP報告）。儘管ADP報告與美國勞動市場和失業率有關，市場參與者通常會在得知非農就業數據報告後才對勞動市場狀況做出結論。因此，對ADP報告的反應可能會有些微，但不太可能顯著。今天預計英國或歐盟不會有顯著的宏觀經濟消息。

基本面事件分析：

Exchange Rates 08.01.2025 analysis

週三的重要事件包括美聯儲理事Christopher Waller的講話及最新FOMC會議紀要的發佈。如前所述，美聯儲官員此時不預期會提供新的評論。近幾週，美國缺乏重大數據公佈，需要新的資訊來改變央行的立場。FOMC會議紀要主要是一份正式文件，提供會議期間貨幣政策委員會感受的見解。值得注意的是，去年12月，大多數FOMC官員提高了2025年的利率預期。因此，如果會議紀要引發市場反應，更可能使美元走強。

一般結論：

本週的第三個交易日，交易員可能會看到歐元和英鎊進一步的下跌。雖然這兩種貨幣試圖反彈，但它們的努力被歐盟的通脹報告和美國強勁的ISM和JOLTs報告所掩蓋。因此，很可能今天將見證這兩個貨幣對再次下跌。

交易系統的關鍵規則：

  1. 信號強度由信號形成的時間（支撐或突破水平）決定。時間越短，信號越強。
  2. 如果在某個水平附近生成兩個或多個偽信號，則應忽略來自該水平的後續信號。
  3. 在平坦市場中，任何貨幣對都可能產生大量偽信號或根本沒有信號。在這種情況下，最好在出現整合的第一個跡象時停止交易。
  4. 交易應在歐洲交易時段開啟，並持續至美洲交易時段中段。所有交易應隨後手動關閉。
  5. 在小時圖中，基於MACD信號的交易僅應在強波動和已由趨勢線或趨勢通道確認的趨勢期間執行。
  6. 如果兩個水平非常接近（5–20點差），則應將其視為支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 在正確的方向運動15–20點后，將止損設置為保本。

圖表上的內容：

支撐和阻力水平：開立買入或賣出訂單的目標，這些是設置止盈水平的理想點位。

紅線：趨勢線或通道反映當前趨勢方向，並指示首選的交易方向。

MACD指標 (14,22,3)：作為輔助指標和信號來源的直方圖和信號線。

重要新聞事件和報告：始終在經濟日曆中列出，這些會嚴重影響貨幣對的走勢。在此類事件中需要謹慎或退出市場以避免劇烈的價格逆轉。

並非每筆交易都能盈利。外匯交易長期成功的關鍵在於發展明確的策略和有效的資金管理。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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