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Fundamental analysis

15.01.202512:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD： 分析與預測

Exchange Rates 15.01.2025 analysis

GBP/USD 這個貨幣對正在努力有效利用從本週初達到的自2023年11月以來最低點1.2100水準的溫和復甦。

在公佈英國消費者通脹數據不如預期後，日內的下跌趨勢加劇。然而，美國美元勢頭疲弱，幫助該貨幣對維持穩定。根據英國國家統計局 (ONS) 公佈的數據，12月消費者價格指數 (CPI) 同比增長 2.5%，低於預期的從 11 月的 2.6% 上升到 2.7% 的增幅。剔除食品和能源價格的核心 CPI 在該報告月份上漲 3.2%，也低於預期的 3.4% 增長和 11 月的 3.5% 的數值。這些較低的通脹數據為英格蘭銀行在即將於 2 月舉行的貨幣政策會議上考慮降息提供了空間。此外，對英國財政狀況的擔憂以及高通脹與經濟增長疲軟相結合的停滯性通脹風險正拖累英鎊。

Exchange Rates 15.01.2025 analysis

另一方面，隨著週二公佈的美國生產者物價指數（PPI）數據低於預期，美元達到新的週低點，這使聯邦儲備系統下一步利率舉措的預測更加複雜。PPI衡量批發通脹，12月份上升0.2%，而核心PPI在報告期內保持不變。由於對美國當選總統唐納·川普潛在貿易關稅的擔憂有所緩解，樂觀情緒也推動股市並削弱美元的避險吸引力，從而為英鎊/美元（GBP/USD）貨幣對提供一些支持。

儘管如此，市場預期聯邦儲備系統可能在本月稍晚暫停其降息週期，這一直是近期美國國債收益率上升的關鍵驅動力，限制了美元的損失。

為了今天更好的交易機會，應關注即將於北美交易時段早段公佈的美國消費者物價指數（CPI）。CPI報告作為衡量美國通脹的重要指標，將影響聯邦儲備系統的利率預期，並在決定美元短期動態方面發揮關鍵作用。這可能為英鎊/美元貨幣對提供新的動力。因此，在開倉英鎊/美元多頭之前，審慎的做法是等待強烈買盤的確認。

從技術角度來看，英鎊/美元已經穩定在1.2200水平以上。然而，多頭需要看到價格持續突破100小時簡單移動平均線（SMA）和100小時指數移動平均線（EMA）後，才能考慮建立新的多頭倉位。如若做到了，價格可能會加速上行，朝向下一個心理阻力位1.2300。

Exchange Rates 15.01.2025 analysis

反之，跌破1.2200整數關口可能會繼續吸引買家進入1.2150–1.2140區域，因為日線圖上的相對強弱指數（RSI）顯示略微超賣。然而，在該區域下方的賣壓將透露出週一達到的一年多以來的低點。若能有力地突破該水準，可能會成為看跌趨勢的新觸發點。

Exchange Rates 15.01.2025 analysis

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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