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16.01.202507:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 如何在1月16日交易歐元/美元貨幣對?新手的簡單技巧和交易分析

週三交易分析

歐元/美元1小時圖表

Exchange Rates 16.01.2025 analysis

在週三,EUR/USD 貨幣對表現出顯著的波動性。起初,價格保持停滯,因為交易者在等待美國通脹報告的發布。報告發布後,匯率出現急劇上升,儘管通脹數據對美元並沒有明顯的負面影響。然而,在一小時內,歐元再次大幅下跌。這一最新的波動表明市場經歷了另一個修正階段,這個階段可能已於昨日結束。

需要注意的是,過去三個半月中,一直存在下降趨勢,而更廣泛的下降趨勢已經持續了16年。因此,預期該貨幣對將進一步下跌是合理的。關於通脹報告,儘管解釋可能各有不同,我們相信關鍵的結論是消費者價格指數已連續第三個月上升。這一趨勢對預期聯邦儲備系統在2025年的兩次降息產生疑慮,從而增強了美元的增長潛力。

EUR/USD的5分鐘圖表

Exchange Rates 16.01.2025 analysis

在5分鐘時間框架上,週三出現了兩個明顯的交易信號。最初,匯價從1.0334–1.0359區間反彈,然後下跌至1.0269–1.0277區間。在這兩種情況下,反彈的發生創造了一個交易信號。新手交易者首先可以開立一個短倉,隨後開立一個長倉,這兩筆交易都能獲利。事實上,長倉甚至可以持續到週四。

週四交易策略:

在小時時間框架上,歐元兌美元(EUR/USD)保持在下行趨勢中。我們認為歐元在中期內的下跌已經恢復,距離平價仍然不遠。如前所見,由於基礎面和宏觀經濟因素支持美元,歐元可能會進一步下跌。

由於宏觀經濟背景疲弱,週四匯價的波動可能相對平淡,這意味著技術信號在交易決策中會發揮更大作用。

在5分鐘時間框架上,我們應考慮以下關鍵水平:1.0156、1.0221、1.0269–1.0277、1.0334–1.0359、1.0433–1.0451、1.0526、1.0596、1.0678、1.0726–1.0733、1.0797–1.0804和1.0845–1.0851。在歐元區,週四僅發布德國12月通脹的第二次估算,預計不會有驚喜。在美國,最重要的報告將是零售銷售,但這不太可能引發顯著的市場反應。

核心交易系統規則:

  1. 信號強度:信號形成(反彈或突破)的時間越短,信號越強。
  2. 虛假信號:如果一個水平附近的兩次或多次交易結果為虛假信號,應忽略來自該水平的後續信號。
  3. 橫盤市場:在橫盤市場中,匯價可能產生許多虛假信號或根本沒有信號。一旦出現橫盤跡象,最好停止交易。
  4. 交易時段:在歐洲交易時段開始和美國交易時段中期之間開立交易,然後手動關閉所有交易。
  5. MACD信號:在小時時間框架上,僅在有良好波動性和由趨勢線或趨勢通道確認的明顯趨勢時交易MACD信號。
  6. 接近水平:如果兩個水平太接近(相差5–20點),將其視為一個支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損:當價格向期望方向移動15點後,將止損設置為保本。

關鍵圖表要素:

支撐和阻力水平:這些是開倉或平倉的目標水平,也可以作為設置盈利了結訂單的參考點。

紅線:通道或趨勢線,指示當前的趨勢和偏好的交易方向。

MACD指標(14,22,3):一個柱狀圖和信號線,作為輔助的交易信號來源。

重要事件和報告:這些可以在經濟日曆中找到,可能對價格變動產生重大影響。在其發布時要謹慎,或退出市場以避免價格急劇反轉。

外匯新手應記住,不是每筆交易都會獲利。制定清晰的交易策略和進行正確的資金管理,是長期交易成功的關鍵。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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