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21.01.202506:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 1月21日英鎊/美元貨幣對概況：英鎊抓住一根救命稻草

Exchange Rates 21.01.2025 analysis

英鎊/美元匯率組合在週一出現了增長，這恰逢美國交易時段的開始。需要注意的是，這一增長並不是由於任何特定的經濟事件所引發，也與唐納·川普的就職典禮無關，因為上升趨勢在不同的時間點開始。某一時刻，美元開始下跌，這讓人不禁想知道這一變化背後的原因。

我們對這類不可預測的波動並不熱衷，因為即使事後檢討，也很難解釋。市場在此類時刻往往會情緒化反應，忽視分析和邏輯。似乎有一個主要的市場參與者開始平倉美元頭寸，導致美國貨幣走弱。這個決定的理由只有該參與者自己知曉。畢竟，唐納·川普的就職典禮有何重要意義？這不過是總統之間的職位交接正式化。此變化公眾已知曉兩個月時間，給了市場足夠的時間對此事件及川普的言論做出反應。

我們認為，英鎊將主要依賴於標準的技術性修正，這些修正可能是廣泛且持久的。需注意，趨勢階段通常比修正階段要短得多。實踐中，這表現為市場需要很長時間去累積買賣頭寸，這在圖表上表現為修正、整合或平盤運動。緊接著的主導運動通常以需求或供應的急劇且快速的增加為特徵，導致進一步的市場反應。

在日圖上，顯而易見的是英鎊已經接近四個月的下跌幾乎沒有修正。因此，持續增長的時期可能在地平線上，儘管不太可能快速或強勁。對於英國貨幣而言，第一個目標是1.2444的Kijun-sen線。不過，我們不期望快速升至此水準；更可能的是會有反彈然後繼續下跌。如前所述，修正和整合通常需要時間，例如，日圖上的修正可能持續幾個月。

在基本面背景上，有必要將川普的就職典禮與更廣泛的局勢分開討論，因為它本質上不會帶來任何即時性的改變。我們只有在看到川普政府的實質性變革後才能評估美元和美國經濟的未來前景。目前，沒有實施任何制裁，關稅仍然只是威脅，而"閉關鎖國"的想法雖然可能吸引選民，但實際落實起來將非常困難。因此，我們不預期會有任何快速變化導致市場動盪。此外，目前並沒有長期理由支持英鎊升值，正如之前沒有一樣。

Exchange Rates 21.01.2025 analysis

在過去五個交易日，英鎊/美元的平均波動率為118點，對於這對貨幣組合來說被認為是「高」的。因此，我們預計在1月21日星期二，市場將在1.2177和1.2413之間波動。線性回歸的上通道仍然向下，表示看跌趨勢。CCI指標再次進入超賣區，但在下跌趨勢中，任何超賣狀況都僅僅是修正信號。該指標的新看漲背離再次暗示了可能的修正。

最近支撐位：

  • S1 – 1.2268
  • S2 – 1.2207
  • S3 – 1.2146

最近阻力位：

  • R1 – 1.2329
  • R2 – 1.2390
  • R3 – 1.2451

交易建議：

英鎊/美元貨幣對保持看跌趨勢。我們仍然不建議做多，因為市場已多次將英國貨幣的所有潛在增長因素計算在內，且目前沒有新的因素出現。如果您根據「純技術指標」交易，當價格位置高於移動平均線時，可以考慮以1.2329和1.2390作為目標進行做多。然而，更相關的是做空，目標為1.2146和1.2085，但這需要貨幣對再次回落到移動平均線以下以鞏固趨勢。

插圖說明：

線性回歸通道幫助確定當前趨勢。如果兩個通道排列一致，表示強勁趨勢。

移動平均線（設定：20,0, 平滑）定義短期趨勢並指導交易方向。

Murray水平作為運動和修正的目標水平。

波動率水平（紅線）表示根據當前波動性讀數，該貨幣對接下來24小時內的可能價格範圍。

CCI指標：如果進入超賣區域（低於-250）或超買區域（高於+250），表示即將出現相反方向的趨勢逆轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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