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29.01.202511:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 1月29日BTC/USD的波浪分析。比特幣無視所有逆風

Exchange Rates 29.01.2025 analysis

在四小時圖上,BTC/USD的波浪結構顯得相當清晰。在3月14日至8月5日之間形成了一個延續且複雜的a-b-c-d-e調整結構後,一個新的衝擊波浪已經出現,並形成了一個五浪形態。基於第一波的大小,第五浪可能會顯得較小。基於此結構,我預期比特幣在未來幾個月內不會超過110,000–115,000美元。

第四浪已經形成了一個三浪模式,這確認了目前波浪分析的正確性。由於第五浪的形成已經開始,現在是尋找買入機會的時候。然而,如先前提到的,這一波可能很快就結束了,或者已經結束。

比特幣的增長受到了機構投資穩定流入的推動,包括對沖基金、政府機構和養老基金。然而,特朗普的政策可能迫使投資者退出市場,沒有趨勢能夠無限期地保持看漲。

市場忽視賣出信號

週二,BTC/USD又下跌了1,000美元,但市場參與者繼續積極買入,將這個全球領先的加密貨幣推回其近期的高點。在我看來,這種行為令人困惑,因為一切似乎都為一個調整趨勢階段做好了準備。

當然,大型市場玩家有他們自己的邏輯——像MicroStrategy這樣的公司拒絕考慮任何除了買入的選擇。也許比特幣確實有一個看漲的未來,並且有一天其價格可能達到1,000,000美元。在這種情況下,策略很簡單——以任何價格買入並持有。

然而,當交易比特幣時,看到沒有調整的趨勢是不尋常的,市場完全忽視了負面因素。許多交易者一度期待著一個“altcoin season”的到來,但它從未到來。山寨幣(除了最大的一些)已經失去了投資者的興趣。即使是Ethereum也在下滑,而比特幣仍然穩定。

唐納德·特朗普在他再次當選後承諾立即創建一個國家比特幣儲備。然而,他很快就忘記了這一承諾,這種情況發生在許多其他承諾上。在我看來,美國政府不會在當前價格下購買比特幣作為儲備——如果他們可以等待一個更好的進場點的話,為何要這麼做?然而,為了讓這一點發生,比特幣需要大幅下跌。

目前,我看到加密貨幣市場上正在形成另一個投機泡沫。每個泡沫都會遲早破裂。儘管比特幣還在繼續上漲,但最終將面臨一個重大崩盤。在這種情況下,我無法推薦購買BTC,無論它看起來多麼誘人。

結論

根據我對BTC/USD的分析,我認為比特幣的增長階段快要結束。這可能是個不受歡迎的觀點,但第五浪可能會變得較短,導致一次急劇崩盤或長期調整。因此,我不建議在這個階段購買BTC。

如果第五浪開始形成一個延展的五浪結構,那麼其中應出現一個令人信服的第二浪調整。目前,第二浪是可見的,但其力量不足以確認進一步增長。至少還需一次的下跌很可能在前面。

在更高的時間框架中,比特幣正在形成一個五浪看漲結構。然而,這意味著調整或看跌趨勢可能即將開始。

Exchange Rates 29.01.2025 analysis

我分析的基本原則

1. 波浪結構應該簡單明瞭——複雜的結構較難交易,因為它們經常會意外變動。

2. 如果市場方向不明確,最好保持觀望。

3. 價格變動從來沒有百分之百的確定性。始終使用止損單。

4. 波浪分析可以與其他類型的技術分析和交易策略結合使用。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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