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07.02.202509:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 「黃金」階梯：黃金是否越走越高？

Exchange Rates 07.02.2025 analysis

隨著地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，金價有望進一步上漲。在當前的環境中，黃金繼續攀升，達到新高並克服各種障礙。

投資者愈發轉向黃金這一避險資產，主要是因為對貿易戰升級的擔憂支持著金價。美國聯邦儲備局降息預期和美國國債收益率持續低迷也為金價提供了更多支持。

在2月6日星期四小幅回落後，2月7日星期五黃金重新獲得正面動能，並保持在歷史高位附近。本週早些時候，因對美國總統特朗普関稅政策的疑慮，金價達到每盎司2,882美元的歷史高位。2月7日星期五，金價交投於2,861美元，試圖進一步上漲。

支持金價的地緣政治和經濟推動力

美中貿易緊張局勢升級以及對特朗普激進貿易政策潛在負面影響的擔憂，增加了對黃金等避險資產的需求。這一需求使金價接近歷史高位，在美國非農就業報告發布前增勢加快。

市場預期美聯儲將在2025年繼續降息，這使得美國國債收益率保持在低位。然而，這種低收益環境並未吸引大量美元買家，而是進一步支持了金價。基準10年期美國國債收益率已降至自2024年12月12日以來的最低水平，預計到2025年底，美聯儲將實施兩次降息。這種情況對黃金來說依然有利。

Exchange Rates 07.02.2025 analysis

技術展望：黃金（XAU/USD）

技術圖表顯示，最近的隔夜反彈以及隨後的價格上漲確認了黃金短期看漲的前景。然而，相對強弱指數（RSI）顯示市場略微超買，建議看漲交易者謹慎行事。專家建議等待短期整固期，然後再預期上升趨勢的延續。

根據技術圖表，2855美元的水平區域以及接近2834美元的隔夜低點，將為黃金提供短期支撐。低於此水平，2815美元至2714美元的範圍也是一個需要注意的關鍵區域。另外，2800美元的標記相當重要；突破此點可能導致技術性拋售。若出現此情況，XAU/USD匯率可能會回落至阻力突破點2773美元至2772美元。這個水平與每周低點相符，強勁突破可能導致更大的修正。

花旗研究上調2025年黃金價格預測

在當前市場條件下，花旗研究提高了2025年的短期和中期黃金價格預測，歸因於與特朗普政府相關的貿易戰和地緣政治緊張局勢。此外，各國央行的黃金購買也對修訂後的展望做出了貢獻。

在他們的最新報告中，花旗分析師將他們的三個月黃金價格預測從每盎司2800美元提高到3000美元。對於2025年，分析師預計黃金價格將達到每盎司2900美元。

“看來在特朗普2.0時期，黃金牛市將因貿易戰和地緣政治不確定性推動儲備多樣化以及去美元化而獲得動力。此外，這些因素支撐新興市場官方部門的黃金需求，” 花旗研究強調。

美國就業數據可能影響黃金和美元需求

市場參與者正在等待美國非農就業（NFP）報告的發布。初步預測顯示，1月份新增17萬個就業崗位，低於前一個月的25.6萬個。同時，失業率預計將保持在4.1%左右。這些數據對塑造美聯儲的貨幣政策展望以及影響美元需求和黃金價格動態至關重要。

持續的貿易衝突也對黃金價格產生顯著影響。本週，前總統特朗普對所有中國進口商品額外徵收10%的關稅。作為回應，中國迅速對美國進口商品實施報復性關稅，有效地重燃了世界兩大經濟體之間的貿易戰爭。北京對特定美國商品引入關稅，標誌著貿易衝突的新階段，進一步支持了高企的黃金價格。

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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