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07.02.202512:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 市場暫停:如何預測非農就業報告及其對市場的影響?

Exchange Rates 07.02.2025 analysis

美國股市期貨周五下跌,投資者對即將發布的關鍵就業報告保持警惕,該報告可能影響美聯儲未來的利率決策。

由於備受期待的非農就業人數(NFP)報告即將公布,投資者屏息以待,美國股市期貨正在下跌,這可能影響市場對美聯儲未來貨幣政策舉措的預期。

美國就業增長速度放緩可能改變市場動態,強化市場對較為溫和貨幣立場的預期。預測顯示,美國經濟在一月份新增了17萬個就業機會,這是三個月來最弱的就業增長,而失業率預計保持在4.1%。

如果實際數據不及預期,這將加強對早期降息的期望,但同時,可能會引發對經濟放緩的擔憂。

市場已經感受到壓力的跡象——儘管第四季收益強勁,Amazon的股票在一季度盈利展望不及預期後,盤前交易下跌超過4%。這給納斯達克100指數帶來了額外壓力,儘管該指數週四仍上漲了0.51%,而標普500指數上漲了0.36%。

金融、消費和科技行業支撐了市場,而能源和醫療股繼續疲弱。

本週,華爾街設法收復了部分因川普意外宣佈關稅而導致的損失,但當前的市場走勢仍保持謹慎。

納斯達克100指數

在分析時,納斯達克100指數的交易價位在21,776點,接近本地阻力位。21,800–21,850區域是進一步上漲的關鍵障礙。

如果就業報告引發市場的積極反應,納斯達克100指數可能突破此阻力,目標指向22,000,這將成為短線交易者的獲利水準。

然而,由於Amazon的疲軟引發的科技行業下行可能限制這種上升動力。

Exchange Rates 07.02.2025 analysis

若非農就業人數(NFP)數據低於預期,Nasdaq 100 可能會測試支撐位 21,600。若跌破此水平,可能開啟進一步調整至 21,400–21,300 的大門,此區域為近期整固區域。RSI(14)接近 60,顯示市場情緒中性,而 MACD 仍指示上升趨勢,但上升動能正在減弱。

S&P 500

S&P 500 持穩在 6,073,其短期趨勢取決於 NFP 報告。上升趨勢仍然完好,但指數正接近在 6,100–6,120 區域的阻力位,過往在此曾發生逆轉。

如果就業數據不如預期(但並非過於疲弱),S&P 500 可能會嘗試測試 6,150。然而,強勁的勞動力市場數據可能增加長期高利率的可能性,從而可能引發回調至 6,000–5,980。

關鍵支撐位仍在 5,950。如跌破此水平,可能加速賣壓,將指數推向 5,900。

RSI(14)為 57,尚無超買現象,但 MACD 顯示上升動能正在削弱。

投資者正準備應對市場波動,接下來幾個小時對於決定市場短期趨勢將至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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