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11.02.202512:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD – 2月11日:特朗普開始一場新的危險遊戲

星期一,EUR/USD貨幣對衝向1.0335 - 1.0346的阻力區,遭到拒絕後逆轉,支持美元,下跌至1.0288的23.6%費波納契回撤水平。從此水平反彈將支持歐元的恢復,將貨幣對推回至阻力區。確認突破1.0288以下將為持續下跌至1.0213的0.0%費波納契水平鋪平道路。

Exchange Rates 11.02.2025 analysis

在小時圖表上,波動結構已變得不清晰。最後完成的向下波動打破了之前的低點。最後完成的向上波動未能打破先前的高點。

這表明趨勢已轉為看跌,或是該對彙正在進行複雜的水平整固模式。波動大小的不一致使人對清楚的趨勢方向產生疑慮。

雖然周一缺乏經濟數據,但對特朗普的貿易戰策略的辯論仍在進行。特朗普想要通過關稅達成什麼目標?美國總統的目標是將製造業帶回美國,並減少貿易赤字。關稅能夠實現這個目標嗎?中國、墨西哥和加拿大高度依賴美國的出口。對這些國家的關稅可能會顯著損害他們的GDP。然而,美國的通脹也在上升,這可能會迫使聯邦儲備系統(Fed)長時間保持利率高漲,甚至可能提高。對於美元來說,這種情況比壞事更可能是好事,但與此同時,我不認為美國經濟會通過貿易戰得以增長。墨西哥和加拿大接受了特朗普最初的條款,但他們可能會拒絕他新的最後通牒。中國甚至還未遵守美國提出的第一套要求。

Exchange Rates 11.02.2025 analysis

在H4圖表上,EUR/USD對在1.0436的127.2%費波納奇回撤水平遭到拒絕,導致美元走勢的熊市轉變。該對現在有可能進一步下跌至1.0225的161.8%費波納奇水平。為了讓多頭恢復控制,他們需要一個強有力的基本面催化劑來突破1.0436。目前在任何指標上都沒有觀察到分歧信號。

交易者承諾(COT)報告分析

Exchange Rates 11.02.2025 analysis

在最新的報告週中,機構交易員開設了8,894個多頭倉位和904個空頭倉位。現在,投機者手中濃集的多頭倉位總數為162,000,空頭倉位為221,000。

連續20週,機構交易員一直在賣空歐元——這是一個明顯的熊市趨勢。雖然偶爾會有多頭市場短暫主導,但這更多的是例外而非常態。主要的熊市驅動因素——對聯儲政策寬鬆的期待——已經被充分反映在價格上。沒有強烈的理由進一步賣出美元。未來可能會出現新的觸發因素,但目前看來,美元更有可能繼續走強。技術分析也支持長期熊市趨勢的延續。我預期EUR/USD在中期內會繼續下跌。

美國與歐元區的重要經濟事件(2月11日)

  • 美國 – 聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的證詞(15:00 UTC)。

2月11日的經濟日曆只有一個主要事件。預期鮑威爾的演講將對市場產生適中的影響,可能在交易日的下半場影響市場情緒。

EUR/USD的交易建議

在小時圖上從1.0411位擊退後,賣出該對是一個有效的策略,目標為1.0335 – 1.0346。這個目標已經用寬大的幅度達到了。

周一,也可以在1.0335 – 1.0346位被擊退後賣出,目標為1.0288和1.0213。第一個目標(1.0288)已經達到。可以考慮在1.0288附近買入,但趨勢已再次轉為熊市。

斐波那契水準如下所列:

  • 1H圖: 1.0533 – 1.0213。
  • 4H圖: 1.0603 – 1.1214。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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