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14.02.202510:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 為什麼美國股市忽視通脹上升?(#SPX 和 #NDX 進一步增長的可能性)

看來,美國的投資者和本地股市的參與者大致上都忽略了美國的強勁通脹數據。然而,這是為什麼呢?

本週的美國消費者和生產者的通脹報告超出了預期,明顯向投資者表明現有的通脹趨勢基本上排除了美聯儲繼續降息的可能性。此外,聯準會主席 Jerome Powell 最近在國會聽證會上表示,央行目前沒有理由考慮降息。儘管面對這些通脹信號,投資者卻選擇忽視它們。這是為什麼呢?

在傳統的市場評估模型中,股市前景與通脹動態緊密相連,進而影響利率,因為借貸成本直接影響市場流動性,特別是通過債券市場。然而,目前的形勢非同尋常,這主要歸因於特朗普的經濟和政治策略。他的政策旨在刺激和保護國內製造業者,這些政策成為了實體經濟類股的主要推動力,而這些類股又推動了股指走高。

此外,第47任總統的地緣政治行動對歐洲和其他地區施加壓力,實際上抽走了這些地區的金融資源甚至是生產能力。美國被定位成為一個更具吸引力的投資和製造地點,進一步增強了資本流入本地金融市場。這一資本流入是支持股指的另一個關鍵因素。

美國股市會繼續上升嗎?

未來仍有增長的可能,尤其是當年度消費者通脹穩定在3%附近而不加速上升時。在這種情況下,聯準會可能會維持利息不變,讓股市繼續創下新高。然而,如果通脹持續上升——這是非常可能的情況——聯準會可能被迫加息,除非它屈服於特朗普的壓力並改變其更廣泛的貨幣政策架構。目前,這種框架的運行情況是假設歷史低利率約為2%。如果聯準會決定調整其方針,並將可接受的通脹門檻調高至例如3%,即便通脹升至3.5%也可能不會加息。但如此即會顯著改變局勢。

今日市場預期如何?

美國主要股指的期貨顯示積極走勢。如果這一情緒持續,我們可以預期短期股票上漲行情的延續,導致股指上升。這一趨勢可能對美元施加下行壓力,同時可能推動加密貨幣價格上漲。

Exchange Rates 14.02.2025 analysis
Exchange Rates 14.02.2025 analysis

每日預測:

#SPX – S&P 500期貨的CFD合約已到達5912.40至6124.80區間的上界。如果突破此水準,預計將進一步增長至6242.00。

#NDX – NASDAQ 100期貨的CFD合約亦接近在22128.50區域的局部高點。然而,也有可能在繼續上升前向21904.50進行修正性下跌。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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