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17.02.202510:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 市場接近過熱：什麼可能引發調整？

Exchange Rates 17.02.2025 analysis

美國股市持續上漲，但指數接近可能引發獲利了結的重要水平。本週結束時呈現不確定性：標普500指數收盤持平，納斯達克上漲0.4%，而道瓊斯指數下跌165點。

波動性增加的主要驅動力是零售銷售疲弱，1月份銷售額下降0.9%，創下年度最大跌幅。

這讓人們對消費者支出的擔憂增加，而消費者支出依然是美國經濟增長的主要驅動力。

儘管如此，市場整體保持穩定，投資者消化了近期政治發展，包括Trump的新關稅計劃及對烏克蘭危機的外交解決嘗試。

華爾街對互惠關稅延遲的反應積極，使指數整周取得穩定的增長：標普500上漲1%，道瓊斯漲0.3%，納斯達克暴漲1.7%。

科技板塊領漲市場

科技板塊持續表現優異：

  • Airbnb股價因業績報告強勁上漲14.4%。
  • GameStop股價因新一輪比特幣猜測上漲2.6%。
  • 儘管虧損超出預期，Moderna股價上漲3.3%。
  • 相比之下，Eli Lilly股價下跌3%，反映了投資者的失望。

未來展望：謹慎樂觀及聚焦聯邦儲備

新的一周開始時帶著謹慎的樂觀情緒，但市場仍在觀望狀態中。重點在於FOMC會議紀要的發佈，這可能提供有關聯邦儲備未來政策立場的線索。

此外，多位聯邦儲備官員將發表講話，這可能會澄清未來利率的走向。

關鍵經濟數據需關注：

  • 美國住房市場報告：包括建築許可、房屋開工和現有房屋銷售等數據將受到密切關注。這些數據將提供建造業狀況的見解，而該行業對利率變動高度敏感。
  • 標普全球的PMI指數：這將顯示製造業和服務業的增長動力是否保持穩固。
  • 如果PMI數據強勁，可能會加強美聯儲保持高利率的立場，這可能對股市施加壓力。

標普500：多頭動能持續

標普500保持在關鍵的6,100點上方，確認了目前上升趨勢的韌性。如果指數保持在6,120點以上，它可能朝向6,150點邁進，屆時可能開始獲利了結。

突破6,150點將設定新目標在6,180 – 6,200點，潛在地達到歷史新高。

現在關鍵支撐位在6,100點，一旦跌破此位，可能會引發回調至6,080點和6,050點。如果熊市情景出現，關鍵支撐區在接近6,000點的範圍，該處是50天簡單移動平均線所處位置。

Exchange Rates 17.02.2025 analysis

指標：

  • RSI (14) = 62，這表明指數接近超買狀態，但尚未出現反轉信號。
  • MACD保持在多頭領域，確認市場情緒積極。
  • 50日均線在6,000附近，作為重要的動態支撐。

如果標準普爾500指數能夠保持在6,120以上，則有望進一步上漲至6,150及更高。然而，跌破6,100可能預示著回撤至6,080 – 6,050。

納斯達克100：測試22,200

納斯達克100指數繼續上漲，強化了科技股板塊的強勢。關鍵阻力位在22,200，突破將打開升至22,500的大門，創下新高。然而，超買跡象表明可能會出現回調，特別是當投資者開始鎖定利潤時。

支撐位：

  • 22,000：跌破該水平可能會導致回調至21,800。
  • 21,600：更深的回撤可能會測試此水平，這也是50日均線所在之處。

指標：

  • RSI (14) = 70，表明超買狀態，增加了回調的可能性。
  • MACD仍維持在多頭領域，但顯示動能可能減弱。
  • 50日均線在21,600，如出現回調，將成為重要支撐位。

超買狀態增加了短期回調的風險。如果納斯達克100指數保持在22,200以上，則可能進一步上漲至22,500。然而，跌破22,000可能會引發下降至21,800 – 21,600。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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