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外汇市场分析

20.02.202509:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元：2月20日新手交易者的簡單交易建議。昨日外匯交易分析

歐元交易分析與交易建議

當價格在1.0415進行測試時，MACD指標已經從零水平顯著下降，這限制了當天匯價的下行空間。因此，我選擇不賣出歐元。

昨日公佈的FOMC會議紀要確認了美聯儲早已持有的看法。委員會成員認為沒有必要急於降息。美聯儲希望在這方面作出任何決策之前，能夠看到實際的通脹控制進展。他們還指出，如果經濟再度出現過熱跡象，利率將保持高位。這一立場對市場或交易員來說並不新鮮，因此沒有導致持倉發生重大變化。然而，這給風險資產帶來壓力，並支持美元。

展望未來，焦點將集中在美國的通脹數據、就業水平和零售銷售數據上。持續的工資增長和強勁的消費者支出可能顯示出持續的通脹壓力，這可能會促使美聯儲在降息上更加謹慎。

今早沒有重要數據安排，因此重點應放在德國生產者價格指數（PPI）和歐元區消費者信心指數上。這些指標作為通脹信號和地區經濟健康指標。德國PPI數據強於預期可能促使歐洲央行採取更謹慎的降息立場，從而提振歐元。相反，疲弱的數據可能對單一貨幣造成壓力。

消費者信心指數反映家庭對經濟未來的樂觀程度。較高的信心水平通常表示增加的消費者支出，從而刺激經濟增長，並有可能支持歐元。

至於日內策略，今天我將主要依賴於執行情景#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 20.02.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1：今天，我計劃在價格達到1.0440時（圖表上的綠線）買入歐元，目標價為1.0473。當價格到達1.0473時，我計劃退出交易並反向賣出歐元，預期從入場點會有30-35點的回調。若歐元在當天上半段時間內出現強勁上漲，可能是因為來自德國的經濟數據強勁。重要提示！在進行買入交易之前，請確保MACD指標位於零以上並開始上升。

情境#2：如果今天價格兩次測試1.0420而MACD指標處於超賣區，我將買入歐元。這將限制歐元兌美元的下行潛力，可能引發反彈。預期的上漲目標為1.0440和1.0473。

賣出信號

情境#1：當價格達到1.0420時（圖表上的紅線），我計劃賣出歐元，目標價為1.0386。我將在此點退出交易並立即反向買入，預期有20-25點的回調。如果經濟數據令人失望，賣壓將增加。重要提示！在進行賣出交易之前，請確保MACD指標低於零並開始下降。

情境#2：如果今天價格兩次測試1.0440而MACD指標在超買區，我也將賣出歐元。這將限制歐元兌美元的上行潛力，可能引發下跌。預期的下跌目標為1.0420和1.0386。

Exchange Rates 20.02.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容：

  • 細綠線代表買入交易工具的進場價格。粗綠線顯示預期的價格水平，可以在此處設置止盈單，或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步超過此水平上升的可能性不大。細紅線代表賣出交易工具的進場價格。粗紅線顯示預期的價格水平，可以在此處設置止盈單，或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步超過此水平下降的可能性不大。MACD指標應用於評估進入市場時的超買和超賣區域。

重要提示：

  • 初學者外匯交易者在市場進入決策上應保持極度謹慎。在重大基本面報告發布前，建議迴避進場，以避免暴露在劇烈價格波動中。如果選擇在新聞發布期間進行交易，務必使用止損單以將潛在損失降至最低。不使用止損單進行交易可能會迅速損失掉全部資金，特別是當忽視資金管理原則且使用高交易量進行交易時。
  • 請記住，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃，類似於以上所述的計劃。依賴當前市場狀況進行衝動型交易決策對於日內交易者來說是失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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