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20.02.202509:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD:給初學者的簡單交易技巧——2月20日。昨日外匯交易分析

英鎊交易分析及交易建議

價格在1.2595的測試發生在MACD指標已顯著上升到零水平之上時,限制了該貨幣對的上行潛力。因此,我沒有買入英鎊。在當天下半段,該貨幣對再次在1.2571進行了價格測試。然而,此時MACD已大幅向下從零水平移動,限制了該貨幣對的下行潛力。唯一可行的選擇是等待第二種買入情境的出現,此情境不久後成為現實。在1.2571的價格測試期間,MACD處於超賣區域,觸發了買入進場,最終為英鎊帶來25點的獲利。

昨日,英鎊在英國通脹數據參差不齊的影響下曾試圖上漲,這促使英國央行的更多考量。然而,英鎊未能突破周高點,導致投機性交易者積極獲利了結。當天下半段,GBP/USD面臨加大的賣壓,突破橫盤區間,為更深的向下修正創造了重要條件。由於對經濟不穩定的擔憂不斷增加,英鎊仍然承壓,這可能強化了看跌的前景,並增加了對該貨幣未來走勢的擔憂。

今天,在當天上半段,我們預期將公佈來自英國工業聯合會(CBI)的CBI工業訂單平衡數據。該指標顯示英國製造業健康狀況,反映報告訂單增加的公司百分比與報告訂單減少的公司之間的差異。正值表示訂單增加,而負值則表示減少。CBI每月公佈一次訂單平衡數據,提供當前趨勢及英國製造商前景的寶貴見解。分析這些數據有助於評估各種因素對製造業活動的影響,如國內外需求、匯率及政府政策。

關於日內策略,今天我將主要依靠執行第一種和第二種情境。

Exchange Rates 20.02.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1:今天,我計劃在價格達到1.2601時買入英鎊(圖表上的綠線),目標是1.2623。在1.2623時,我計劃退出交易並反向賣出英鎊,預期會從進入點回撤30至35個點。只有在強勁的經濟數據後,才可能出現看漲走勢。重要!在進行買入交易前,確保MACD指標在零線以上並開始上升。

情境#2:如果價格兩次測試1.2585,且MACD指標處於超賣區,我將在今天買入英鎊。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力,並可能引發向上的反轉。預期的上行目標是1.2601和1.2623。

賣出信號

情境#1:我計劃在突破1.2585後賣出英鎊(圖表上的紅線),導致該貨幣對快速下跌。賣家的關鍵目標將是1.2561,在此我計劃退出空頭頭寸並立即以反方向買入,預期回撤20至25個點。重要!在進行賣出交易前,確保MACD指標在零線以下並開始下降。

情境#2:如果價格兩次測試1.2601而MACD指標處於超買區,我也將在今天賣出英鎊。這將限制該貨幣對的上行潛力,並可能引發向下的反轉。預期下行目標是1.2585和1.2561。

Exchange Rates 20.02.2025 analysis

圖表說明:

  • 細綠線表示可以買入交易工具的進場價格。粗綠線表示預期可以放置止盈單或手動確保利潤的價格水平,因為此水平以上的價格增長可能性不大。細紅線表示可以賣出交易工具的進場價格。粗紅線表示預期可以放置止盈單或手動確保利潤的價格水平,因為此水平以下的價格下降可能性不大。MACD 指標應用於評估市場進入時的超買和超賣區域。

重要注意事項:

  • 初學者外匯交易者在做市場進場決定時應保持高度謹慎。建議在重要基本報告發佈之前停止交易,以避免價格劇烈波動帶來的風險。如果您選擇在新聞發佈期間進行交易,請務必使用止損訂單,以將潛在損失降至最低。不設止損訂單的交易可能迅速耗盡您的全部存款,特別是如果忽視資金管理原則並進行大額交易時。
  • 請記住,成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃,類似於上面所述的計劃。根據當前市場情況做出即興交易決策對於日內交易者來說是一種失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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