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26.02.202513:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 石油市場瀕臨崩潰。布倫特原油能否保持在每桶70美元以上?

Exchange Rates 26.02.2025 analysis

油氣市場預計在不久的將來將以高波動性進行交易。油價仍然承受壓力,其能否維持在70美元以上將取決於進一步的地緣政治事態發展和宏觀經濟數據。

市場概況

Brent原油期貨已失去了年初的動力,再次困在自去年秋天以來持續的70至75美元整合區間內。

截至本報告撰寫時,最近的期貨合約以每桶73.3美元交易,並將於周五到期。下一個期貨合約的定價略低於72.7美元。

從技術角度講,4小時圖顯示超賣狀態,這可能預示著短期內可能會反彈。然而從長遠來看,油價仍然疲弱,徘徊在去年的低點附近。

油市的主要看跌因素

油價下跌的主要因素依然是預期的供給過剩。對俄羅斯實施的制裁似乎不太可能減少全球供應。

此外,有關俄烏衝突可能解決的猜測引起了對俄羅斯無限制向全球市場出口石油的擔憂。

來自美中貿易戰的進一步負面壓力是由Trump政府發起的關稅限制。關稅限制已經開始影響經濟,削弱消費者信心並助長通貨膨脹預期。這反過來則對能源需求下降構成風險。

為什麼市場對新制裁伊朗的措施沒有反應

新的伊朗石油出口限制措施本應支持Brent油價,但對市場影響不大。

這可能是由於過去的經驗——先前的制裁僅改變了供應物流,而未真正造成短缺。但是,這些新制裁的範圍和嚴重程度將最終決定其影響。

油價的短暫支撐來自美國石油協會(API)的最新數據,顯示美國原油庫存下降。這是數周來的首次下降,為賣壓帶來了短暫的緩解。

天然氣:局部上漲

天然氣期貨從短期趨勢線反彈,預示著積極的轉變。然而,在1小時圖表上,RSI指標顯示超買狀態,這可能在潛在新一輪上漲之前導致小幅回調。

關鍵觀察水平

阻力位:4.16美元,其次是4.255美元。

支撐位:3.958美元。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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