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26.02.202518:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD 分析 – 2月25日

Exchange Rates 26.02.2025 analysis

英鎊/美元的波浪結構仍然有些模糊,但整體來說是清晰的。目前,形成長期看跌趨勢的可能性很高,只有在Wave 2中1稍有令人懷疑,因其看起來不太有說服力。另一方面,Wave 5看起來定義明確,使我認為高級的Wave 1已經完成。

如果這個假設是正確的,那麼當前正在形成一系列修正波浪,目標接近第26和第28的位置。這個結構的前兩個波浪似乎已經完成,第三波隨時可能結束。

由於歐元可能繼續形成修正結構,我預期英鎊也將如此。還需要注意的是,英國央行(BoE)計劃在2025年進行四輪貨幣寬鬆,而美聯儲(Fed)不打算削減利率超過50個基點。英國經濟一貫讓市場參與者失望,而美國經濟則增強了對美元的信心。這些因素應該會阻止市場參與者大量拋售美元和買入英鎊。

周三英鎊/美元匯率幾乎沒有變化。Wave C in 2可能已經完成了它的形成,因為它看起來非常具有說服力且結構良好。如果本週有更多經濟數據發布,我們可能已經看到轉向形成看跌的Wave 3。但是,目前沒有新聞流,市場仍處於停滯狀態。

即便是周四和周五的報告,也不太可能顯著增加市場波動性。讓我們分析一下。

今天,美國將發布第四季度的GDP數據和耐用品訂單。隨後將公佈首次失業救濟申請報告。失業救濟申請報告幾乎是形式上的,因為它是每週發布的,很少引發市場反應。

GDP報告預計將是最終估算,但市場已經吸收了去年底美國經濟增長略有放緩的事實。如果最終數字不低於第二次估算,市場反應不會太大。

耐用品訂單報告是唯一可能引起興趣的事件,因其預期增長2%。任何低於這一水平的數值都將被負面解讀為對美元不利。

週五的報告數量更多,但大多數可能不太會引起注意。

Exchange Rates 26.02.2025 analysis

綜合結論

英鎊/美元的波浪模式顯示,看跌趨勢的形成正在進行,第一波已經完成。現在,我們應該等待形成一個令人信服的修正波浪結構,之後可以考慮新的賣出機會。

修正結構的最低目標已經達到了第26的位置。我認為至少有200點下跌的可能性非常高。

當然,市場可能出現意外的新聞推動買家增強信心,但目前我沒有看到這樣的催化劑,因此我正準備迎接進一步的下跌。

在更高的波浪尺度上,波浪結構已經轉變。我們現在可以假定一個看跌趨勢正在形成,因為之前的三波上升結構已經明顯完成。如果這一假設正確,我們應該期待修正的Wave 2或b,之後將有衝動的Wave 3或c。

我分析的關鍵原則:

  1. 波浪結構應該簡單明確。複雜的結構難以交易且經常意外改變。
  2. 如果對市場方向沒有信心,最好不參與其中。
  3. 價格運動方向從來沒有100%的確定性。始終使用止損訂單來保護資金。
  4. 波浪分析可以結合其他類型的分析和交易策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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