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28.02.202500:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 日圓持續尋求進一步升值

週四，美元獲得了顯著提振，這是由於第四季度GDP的第二次估算報告發布後顯示經濟增長率為2.3%。儘管這一數據是在預期之內，但價格指數從2.2%上調至2.4%。此外，個人消費支出（PCE）指數——反映核心及整體個人消費支出的增長，也顯示出增加。這一發展引起了對通脹壓力緩解的質疑，但消費需求仍然強勁。1月份的PCE數據將於星期五發布，如果顯示上升，可能會大大改變對美國聯邦儲備銀行利率的預測，從而提高對美元的需求。

Exchange Rates 28.02.2025 analysis

此外，耐用品訂單也超出預期，表明生產能力增強，這間接暗示消費者支出具有韌性。鑑於確認有再度出現通脹壓力的威脅，美元今天很可能會嘗試進一步走強對抗主要貨幣。

日元可能面臨重大的挑戰。隨著東京地區二月份通脹指數的公佈訂於週四晚上，市場擔憂通脹可能超過上個月的數據。這可能給日本央行施加額外壓力，使其實施另一次加息。如果預測成真，日元可能會反彈其近期的下跌趨勢。

目前，市場預期日本央行今年可能加息兩次。這種步調預計會適度增強日元，而不會造成劇烈波動。然而，如果通脹壓力比預期更強，市場可能會調整其前景，預測加息次數由兩次變為三次。這種轉變有可能使美元兌日元匯率大幅下降，或許會跌至九月的低點139.59。

債券市場已經在調整，以應對三次加息的可能性，最近日本10年期國債收益率上升至1.4%以上便是證據。這一趨勢反映出市場日益擔憂日本央行的下次加息可能比預期更快發生，未來利率可能高於1%。

來自美國新政府的不確定性可能對日元有利。特朗普尚未對日元發表任何言論，任何顯著改變導致不確定性增加，可能會提高對防禦性資產的需求。因此，目前沒有理由預期美元兌日元匯率會上升。

在報告週內，日元的淨多頭頭寸增加了5.02億，總計達到49.8億。這說明正在緩慢但穩定地轉向支持日元。與此同時，結算價格繼續下跌。

Exchange Rates 28.02.2025 analysis

在之前的評論中，我們討論了在148.68支撐位可能出現突破的潛力。這一目標已經實現；然而，日元並未進一步走強。週四數據發布後，美元已大幅增強，但目前尚不清楚掉期市場將如何應對美聯儲的利率預測。

我們預期日元可能會進一步走強，再次嘗試突破148.68支撐位，可能導致下跌至146.80/147.00區間。儘管我們預期在週五的PCE數據發布後美元會上升，但不預料會有明顯的增幅。美元兌日元組合可能會在150.90或略高於151.60/80的水平遇到看跌通道的阻力，之後預計會下跌。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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