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06.03.202508:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 2023年3月6日新手交易者的日內交易策略

歐元和英鎊持續上漲,相對於美元的走勢。美國進一步降息的討論使美元承受壓力,而德國的新財政政策措施則支持風險資產。

儘管美國降息會削弱美元,但可以刺激經濟增長,從而支持風險資產。然而,關於降息的規模和時間的不確定性引發了市場緊張。同時,德國用於支持經濟的財政刺激措施對投資者情緒產生了積極影響。政府支出增加可能促進國內生產總值增長和就業創造,使德國資產更具吸引力。

儘管美國ISM服務業活動數據強勁,但美元相對於歐元依然承受壓力。反之,由於對歐洲中央銀行未來貨幣政策的預期,歐元得到了加強。投資者相信,歐洲央行將繼續降低利率以刺激經濟增長,這在當前複雜的地緣政治局勢下,有利於歐元而非不利。

除了利率決策之外,市場將密切關注歐洲央行更新的經濟預測。交易者將仔細分析監管機構對未來幾年歐元區通脹和經濟增長的預期。任何關於預測下調的暗示都可能加強對進一步貨幣政策放寬的預期。

克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在新聞發布會上作出利率決策和經濟預測的陳述將尤其重要。她的語氣和言辭可能會對市場情緒產生重大影響。關於歐洲央行政策未來走向的任何信號都可能觸發市場波動並加強歐元。

如果數據符合經濟學家的預期,則最適合使用均值回歸策略。如果數據顯著高於或低於預期,則建議使用動量策略。

動量策略(在突破時):

EUR/USD

在突破1.0820後買入,可能推動歐元走向1.0855和1.0885。

在跌破1.0790後賣出,可能導致跌向1.0750和1.0715。

GBP/USD

在突破1.2920後買入,可能推動英鎊走向1.2945和1.2980。

在跌破1.2885後賣出,可能導致跌向1.2850和1.2808。

USD/JPY

在突破149.00後買入,可能推動美元走向149.50和150.00。

在跌破148.80後賣出,可能引發拋售,跌向148.30和147.90。

均值回歸策略(在回調時):

Exchange Rates 06.03.2025 analysis

EUR/USD

當匯價未能有效突破1.0825後又跌回到此水平以下時,尋找賣出機會。

當匯價未能有效突破1.0771後又升回到此水平以上時,尋找買入機會。

Exchange Rates 06.03.2025 analysis

GBP/USD

在 1.2910 上方突破未果並回落至此水平以下後,尋找賣出機會。

在 1.2876 下方突破未果並回到此水平以上後,尋找買入機會。

Exchange Rates 06.03.2025 analysis

AUD/USD

在未成功突破0.6360後再回落至該水準以下時,尋找賣出機會。

在未成功突破0.6327後再反彈至該水準以上時,尋找買入機會。

Exchange Rates 06.03.2025 analysis

USD/CAD

在 1.4362 上方出現突破但不成功,隨後回落至此水平下方後,尋找賣出機會。

在 1.4299 下方出現突破但不成功,隨後重新升至此水平上方後,尋找買入機會。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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