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12.03.202500:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美元飛奔，腳跟閃爍

對於歐元來說，美國經濟和美元霸權的衰退，還是德國的「蘇聯時刻」比較好？柏林拒絕使用財政制動政策就像是在發射火箭進入太空。加上對美國經濟衰退的擔憂，已經將歐元/美元匯率推高至1.090以上。這對主要貨幣對上一次達到這些水平是在美國總統大選的十一月初期。唐納德·特朗普的不穩定行為使得投資者避開這位美國總統。

在三月，美國美元指數下跌超過2.5%，創下2023年底以來的最差表現。當時，美聯儲宣布將採取溫和的政策立場，促使金融市場開始準備降息。然而，2024年第一季度美國通脹加速延遲了貨幣寬鬆的開始至九月份，這使得美元得以增強，並為G10貨幣競賽中的競爭優勢打下基礎。

美元指數月度動態
Exchange Rates 12.03.2025 analysis

特朗普讓美元的這次勝利成為可能。他做出了重返白宮的宏偉承諾，投資者相信了他。他的財政刺激措施本應使已經強勁的美國經濟更加繁榮，而關稅則會進一步減緩世界其他地區的經濟增長。經濟增長的差異預期會讓美元飆升。但夢想往往與現實不同。

根據亞特蘭大聯儲的領先指標，關稅和公營部門的大規模裁員風險可能使GDP增長放緩而不是加速。無論特朗普如何談論美國的黃金時代，投資者對美國資產的信心正在減弱。美國股票的資本外流顯示了美國例外論的消失。資金流向其他地方——歐洲、亞洲，甚至流入美國國債，這降低了收益率，加劇了美元的疲弱。

美國股票和債券收益表現
Exchange Rates 12.03.2025 analysis

歐洲貨幣/美元愛好者，你們急著去哪裡呢？雖然德國仍然充滿著樂觀情緒，但弗里德利希·梅爾茨的困境卻提出了一個重要問題：你們的急迫是為了什麼呢？綠黨，這個對憲法修訂至關重要的黨派，已經強烈拒絕了德國這位幾乎成為總理的人所提出的倡議。此外，左派及另類選擇黨的代表們也提交了反對基督教民主聯盟增加國防開支計劃的訴訟。

Exchange Rates 12.03.2025 analysis

儘管如此，從主要貨幣對的走勢來看，投資者堅信Merz將取得成功。謹慎的態度將讓位給財政寬鬆政策，歐元將會飆升至1.200美元。

從技術上看，日線EUR/USD圖表出現了內包線形態，使得多頭倉位能夠在1.087以下形成。如果多頭突破1.091-1.093的阻力區，則漲勢可能繼續推進至1.102和1.115。在這種情況下，持有歐元對美元的多頭倉位是合理的。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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