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12.03.202512:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 市場尚未走出風暴

雖然唐納·川普不認為會有經濟衰退，但這並未對 S&P 500 指數帶來幫助。這個廣泛的股票指數對於安大略省（加拿大）與白宮之間的緊張局勢做出了劇烈反應。安大略省威脅要對出口到美國的電力徵收25%的關稅，這可能導致數百萬美國人陷入無電可用的境地，而川普也對進口鋼鐵和鋁的關稅從25%提高到50%以作回應，隨後又進行了和解。然而，這場風波嚴重動搖了人們的信心，進一步增加了市場的波動性。

市場依賴於預期，或者更確切地說，依賴於投機。S&P 500 指數的上漲到達二月的高點，是由於兩個假設驅動的：川普的關稅威脅只是談判策略，以及最終美國總統將會拯救股市。不過，隨著春季的展開，這兩個假設都沒有實現。

關稅已經很高，未來可能會更高。從川普的演講中可以看出，他願意以股市為代價來達成他的終極目標——讓美國再次偉大。市場對這一策略可能失敗的擔憂正在將資金撤出美國，導致 S&P 500 指數落後於其主要的全球競爭對手。

股票指數表現

Exchange Rates 12.03.2025 analysis

根據川普的說法，市場可能會上升或下降，但首要任務是透過將工廠和產業帶回美國來恢復國力。其他國家已經奪走了美國的企業和工作機會，是時候取回它們。總統並不認為經濟衰退即將到來，並預期會有經濟繁榮。

但市場並不買帳。高盛將其對標普500指數的年終預測從6,500下調至6,200，理由是美國經濟降溫、潛在更高的關稅和更大的不確定性。這些不確定性通常導致股票的更高風險溢價。

如果川普不支持標普500，那麼聯邦儲備局會介入嗎？衍生品市場提高了對年底寬鬆貨幣政策的預期，現在預計將有80個基點的總降息，高於一週前的60個基點。然而，法國巴黎銀行警告投資者在這方面可能也會失望。由於面臨即將到來的經濟衰退和持續高通脹，美聯儲可能會延遲進一步降息，寧願採取觀望態度。

Exchange Rates 12.03.2025 analysis

唯一的曙光是，從歷史上看，標普500指數出現10%的下滑通常只有在滿足三個條件之一時才會進一步加深到20%的跌幅：經濟衰退、盈利衰退或激進的聯儲會緊縮政策。目前這些因素都不存在，這表明美國股市的底部可能已經接近。

從技術上看，標普500指數在日線圖上繼續遵循擴展楔形模式。策略仍然不變——專注於賣出機會，並利用從5,670和5,750的阻力反彈來建立廣泛股票指數的空頭頭寸。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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