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13.03.202500:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元已不再恐懼

歐元代表著樂觀者的貨幣，隨著春天的到來，金融市場的樂觀情緒達到空前高點。歐洲在沒有美國支持的情況下堅定地面對俄羅斯，對美國的貿易戰也不感到畏懼。正是這種自信讓EUR/USD維持在1.09左右，使這對主要貨幣組合推向過去兩年1.02-1.12交易區間的上限。

在2023-2024年間，美國經濟表現優於其他國家，這導致了美國美元在外匯市場上的主導地位。美國美元指數在唐納德·特朗普上任時達到高峰，這一波強勢是由於預期GDP增長差距將進一步擴大。預計的財政刺激方案原本預計會加速美國的增長，同時拖慢歐洲、中國和其他地區的增長。然而，事實卻恰好相反。

特朗普政府開局並非以減稅為特色，而是以關稅和削減政府支出為主。這些措施放緩了而非刺激了經濟。美國即將陷入衰退的憂慮促使投資者逃離美國股票和債券市場，從而推動了EUR/USD的上升。投資者對於美聯儲將介入支持金融市場愈發樂觀，這導致對貨幣擴張會顯著增加的預期。

EUR/USD和利率差異動態
Exchange Rates 13.03.2025 analysis

白宮於3月12日開始對鋼鐵和鋁材實施關稅，這促使歐盟以對價值260億歐元的美國商品徵收進口關稅作為回應。此外，布魯塞爾已開始討論一份計劃自4月中旬起對美國農產品和工業產品徵收25%關稅的清單。值得注意的是，自4月1日起，歐盟打算取消凍結報復性金屬關稅的措施，該措施是在唐納德·川普的第一個總統任期內實施的。

這一情況標誌著貿易戰的開始。最初被視為對出口導向的歐元區經濟及2024年底的歐元的明顯負面影響，然而，歐元兌美元未出現明顯下跌，似乎傳遞出不同的訊息。投資者是否真心樂觀地認為白宮會達成協議，防止局勢超出威脅範疇的進一步升級？

Exchange Rates 13.03.2025 analysis

同時，市場對德國的財政刺激措施保持樂觀，尤其是隨著Friedrich Merz即將與綠黨達成協議。德國的增加支出可能顯著改變外匯市場的力量平衡。美國可能失去其獨有地位，而世界其他地區開始迎頭趕上，導致美元的吸引力下降。

在EUR/USD的日線圖上，存在形成新內部柱的高概率，這表明市場不確定性。如果價格突破接近1.0930的上限，這將提供增加現有多頭倉位的機會。相反，如果該貨幣對跌破1.0875，這可能預示著潛在的逆轉，進而導致拋售歐元兌美元。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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