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14.03.202503:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 英鎊/美元貨幣對概況 – 3月14日:本週最後一天只是形式上的結尾

Exchange Rates 14.03.2025 analysis

週四,英鎊/美元貨幣對也開始了輕微的下行調整。英鎊雖然並未大幅貶值,但解釋它連續兩週上漲的原因卻頗為困難。當然,唐納·川普的關稅政策可能會在美國經濟甚至全球經濟引發衰退,這是一個強烈的賣出美元的理由。然而,市場是否過於提前反應呢?如前所述,美國經濟目前尚未發生災難性的事件。此外,美聯儲至今仍無意在2025年削減利率超過兩次,而歐洲央行和英格蘭銀行的政策則顯得更為寬鬆。假如不考慮川普的關稅消息,歐元和英鎊對美元上漲還有其他什麼原因呢?英國經濟仍然疲弱且停滯不前。英格蘭銀行即使不想,也被迫降息——經濟刺激措施是必需的。倫敦與華盛頓之間為避免關稅而進行的貿易談判至今沒有取得具體成效。與唐納·川普打交道總是很棘手,其中唯一能做的就是接受他的條件。

因此,我們不會感到驚訝假如英鎊開始朝著年度低點移動。該幣種在沒有根本性增長理由的情況下再次上升。英鎊的上漲是由單一因素引起,市場對其他一切都置若罔聞。在日線圖上,即使在近幾週甚至幾個月的強勢上升之後,下行趨勢仍然明顯存在——甚至是自去年9月開始的中期下行趨勢,更不用說自2008年開始的長達16年的下行趨勢。坦白說,近期英鎊的增長似乎標誌著新趨勢的開始。然而,說這是一個趨勢還是一個大幅度的修正還為時過早。

我們依然未看到英鎊持續上漲的確實理由。當然,川普因素是存在的,市場也已經展示了對其決策的反應。因此,若美國總統繼續做出爭議性的決定來實現其帝國野心,美元可能重新開始下跌。需要強調的是,經濟和貨幣政策的重大變化才是真實問題,而不僅僅是對潛在問題的擔憂。例如,去年市場預計美聯儲的利率將削減6至7次,但實際上只削減了三次。儘管如此,市場早已將所有七次預期削減計入價格之中。

若眼下出現下跌,我們將全力支持並認為是合理的。然而,要達到這一點,價格必須首先穩定地跌破移動平均線——不只是幾個小時,而是穩固地。

Exchange Rates 14.03.2025 analysis

在過去五個交易日,GBP/USD 貨幣對的平均波動幅度為 71 點,這對該貨幣對來說被歸類為“中等”波動。3月14日(星期五),我們預計該貨幣對在 1.2873 到 1.3015 之間波動。長期回歸通道已向上轉,但日線時間框架上仍然顯現出下降趨勢。CCI 指標最近避免了超買和超賣區域。

最近的支撐位:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2695

最近的阻力位:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3306

交易建議:

GBP/USD 貨幣對保持中期下降趨勢。我們仍然不考慮做多,因為我們認為當前的上行走勢只是一次修正,已轉變為非理性且恐慌引起的反彈。如果您純粹基於技術分析進行交易,則在價格高於移動平均線時,可以採取目標位於 1.3015 和 1.3062 的多頭倉位。然而,賣單仍然更具相關性,目標位於 1.2207 和 1.2146,因為日線時間框架上的上行修正遲早不可避免地會結束。英鎊看起來極度超買且不合理地昂貴,但 Donald Trump 繼續令美元走弱。這種美元暴跌會持續多久仍然非常不確定。

插圖說明:

線性回歸通道有助於確定當前趨勢。如果兩個通道對齊,則表明趨勢強烈。

移動平均線(設定:20,0,平滑)定義短期趨勢,並指導交易方向。

Murray 水平作為移動和修正的目標水平。

波動水平(紅線)根據當前波動數據表示該貨幣對在未來 24 小時內可能的價格範圍。

CCI 指標:若進入超賣區域(低於 -250)或超買區域(高於 +250),則預示即將反轉趨勢朝相反方向發展。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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