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17.03.202503:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 3月17日英鎊/美元的交易建議及分析：英鎊對經濟毫無興趣

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-03-17 UTC--4

GBP/USD 5分鐘分析

Exchange Rates 17.03.2025 analysis

週五，英鎊/美元貨幣對出現小幅下跌，波動性微乎其微。事實上，英鎊已連續三天下跌，期間總共下跌了50點。在小時圖的時間框架中，價格尚未能夠穩定在關鍵線以下。在一段強勁增長之後，目前還沒有跡象表明開始進行修正。儘管英國GDP報告和英國工業生產報告令人失望，但美國密歇根大學的消費者信心指數同樣低於預期。然而，在歐洲交易時段，英鎊確實有下跌的合理理由，但如前所述，宏觀經濟報告似乎對市場參與者而言意義甚微。隨著Donald Trump正在「度假」，交易者似乎不太願意參與交易。

在小時圖的時間框架中，技術圖形顯示出上升趨勢和橫盤市場的徵兆。儘管貨幣對繼續增長，但過去一周一直處於橫盤整理。低波動性增加了交易者面臨的挑戰。如果貨幣對穩定在關鍵線以下，可能促使價格跌至1.2863。但是，很明顯市場並不急於賣出英鎊或買入美元。從Kijun-sen線反彈可能觸發新的增長，但這可能需要Donald Trump的新關稅措施。

在週五的5分鐘圖時間框架中，價格從Kijun-sen線兩次反彈，分別上升了10和20點。因此，在最後兩次接近相同關鍵線的信號上採取行動的價值不大。

COT報告

Exchange Rates 17.03.2025 analysis

英鎊的COT報告顯示，商業交易者的情緒多年間持續發生變化。代表商業和非商業交易者淨頭寸的紅線和藍線經常交叉，並且通常接近零。目前，這些線條彼此靠近，顯示出買賣頭寸數量大致相等。

在每週時間框架中，價格最初突破了1.3154的水平，隨後下降至趨勢線，並成功突破。突破趨勢線表明英鎊可能會繼續下跌。然而，需要注意的是，在每週時間框架上，從倒數第二最低點反彈，這意味著我們可能正處於盤整市場（或橫盤）中。

根據最近的英鎊報告，非商業組別開立了12,900份買入合約和2,300份賣出合約。因此，非商業交易者的淨頭寸在一週內增加了10,600份合約。

基本因素目前不支持英鎊的任何長期購買，該貨幣可能會繼續其全球下降趨勢。儘管英鎊最近有所增長，但需要認識到這一增長在很大程度上可以歸因於特朗普的政策。

GBP/USD 一小時分析

Exchange Rates 17.03.2025 analysis

在每小時的時間框架中，英鎊/美元貨幣對目前處於上升趨勢，但已進入盤整階段。儘管這可能不是在日線圖中觀察到的更廣泛上升調整趨勢中一系列趨勢變化的最後轉變，但顯然這一調整已然過期。從長期來看，英鎊似乎缺乏增長的理由。目前唯一對英鎊有利的重要因素是唐納德·特朗普的影響，他持續施加制裁和關稅。其他市場因素在很大程度上被忽視。

在3月17日，我們確定了幾個重要水平：1.2237-1.2255、1.2331-1.2349、1.2429-1.2445、1.2511、1.2605-1.2620、1.2691-1.2701、1.2796-1.2816、1.2863、1.2981-1.2987和1.3050。Senkou Span B（1.2753）和Kijun-sen（1.2922）線也可能提供交易信號。當價格朝預期方向移動20點時，建議將止損設置在保本點。交易者還應考慮到Ichimoku指標線可能會在全天波動，影響交易信號的判斷。

星期一英國沒有重大事件安排，但美國將公佈零售銷售報告。本週晚些時候，英格蘭銀行和美聯儲將召開會議，這應該會在市場中引發一些波動。然而，需要記住的是，特朗普的行動目前是外匯市場的主要驅動因素。

圖示說明：

  • 支撐和阻力水平（粗紅線）：粗紅線表示價格可能結束的地方。請注意，這些線不是交易信號的來源。
  • Kijun-sen和Senkou Span B線：從4小時時間框架轉移到每小時時間框架的Ichimoku指標線。這些是強度線。
  • 極限水平（細紅線）：細紅線為價格此前反彈的地方。這些是交易信號的來源。
  • 黃線：趨勢線、趨勢通道或任何其他技術型態。
  • COT圖表上的指標1：表示每類交易者的淨頭寸規模。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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