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17.03.202505:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元匯率概況 – 3月17日：沒有修正跡象

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-03-17 UTC--4
Exchange Rates 17.03.2025 analysis

歐元/美元貨幣對在週五並未延續週三和週四的緩慢下跌走勢。因此，我們將不得不再次等待回調。現在讓我們簡要回顧一下歐元的當前技術狀況。

在周線和月線圖上，我們明顯看到下降趨勢。日線圖同樣顯示下降趨勢，但伴隨著強勁的上行回調。這一上升走勢若沒有唐納德·川普政策的影響，原本不會出現。然而，美元的急劇下滑並未能夠破壞其在所有更高時間框架上的總體上升趨勢。如果匯率從目前的水平恢復下跌，所有趨勢將保持不變，歐元可能將走向價格平價甚至更低。

目前，影響市場的最重要新聞集中在唐納德·川普身上。即將召開的美聯儲和歐洲央行決策似乎影響不大，總體宏觀經濟環境似乎也不讓人擔心。很明顯，如果美國預期經濟困難時期即將來臨，那麼這些挑戰尚未開始。與此同時，歐盟經濟在過去兩年半中一直停滯不前。如果歐元上漲，這是否意味著市場預期其經濟將有突破？但當川普的關稅可能進一步拖慢其經濟時，這種突破的基礎在哪裡？德國央行行長Nagel已經警告稱，如果川普對歐盟徵收進口關稅，可能會導致經濟衰退。

因此，美國和歐洲的經濟似乎都面臨放緩。然而，美國經濟將從每季度2-3%的GDP增長縮減，而歐洲經濟將從每季度0.1-0.2%的微弱增長中下降。哪個經濟體更有可能進入衰退？

同樣的邏輯也適用於歐洲央行和美聯儲的貨幣政策。歐洲央行已經在每次會議上降息，可能被迫將利率降至低於2%，這被視為非官方的「中性標準」。在2025年第一季度，我們愈加聽到歐洲央行可能需要削減利率，程度超出預期。在某些情況下，在川普執政下，美聯儲也可能決定降息超出預期。

然而，當我們查看目前美聯儲和歐洲央行設定的利率及計劃的降息時，這表明儘管美國的情況可能不完美，但仍可能好過於歐盟。這一理解揭示了為什麼交易者正在拋售美元，而投資者正在撤出美國股市。考慮到川普越來越被視為「定時炸彈」，我們也會考慮離開。然而，美元並不如看上去那麼弱，美國經濟沒有面臨嚴重問題——至少目前還沒有。

Exchange Rates 17.03.2025 analysis

截至3月17日，過去五個交易日內，歐元/美元貨幣對的平均波動率為79點，屬於「中等」波動。我們預計該貨幣對在週一將在1.0800和1.0958之間波動。長期回歸通道已向上轉變，但從更高時框可以看到，全球下降趨勢仍然保持不變。CCI指標進入超賣區域，這表示將迎來新一波向上的修正，這次幾乎看起來不再像是修正...

最近的支撐位：

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

最近的阻力位：

R1 - 1.0986

交易建議：

歐元/美元已經離開盤整區域，繼續顯示總體增長。在最近幾個月中，我們一直堅持預計歐元在中期內會下跌，目前這方面沒有改變。除了受到Donald Trump影響外，美元幾乎沒有任何顯著因素支撐其中期下跌。短倉仍然更具吸引力，目標設置在1.0315和1.0254。然而，目前增長何時結束仍難以預測。如果以純技術分析交易，只要價格保持在移動平均線之上，可以考慮做多，目標設定在1.0958和1.0986。

插圖說明：

線性回歸通道有助於確定當前趨勢。如果兩個通道對齊，則表明趨勢強烈。

移動平均線（設定：20,0，平滑）定義短期趨勢並指導交易方向。

Murray Levels 作為運動和修正的目標水平。

波動率水平（紅線）表示根據當前波動率讀數，該貨幣對在未來24小時內可能的價格範圍。

CCI 指標：如果進入超賣區域（低於 -250）或超買區域（高於 +250），則表示即將出現趨勢逆轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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