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18.03.202519:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD：3月18日美國交易時段交易計劃（早盤交易分析）

在我今早的預測中，我專注於1.0904的水平，並打算根據它來做出市場進入的決定。讓我們看一下5分鐘的圖表，分析發生了什麼。在1.0904附近的下跌與假突破提供了很好的長期進場點，導致了該匯率對往1.0945的上漲。對於下半天的技術展望已經被修訂。

Exchange Rates 18.03.2025 analysis

對於在EUR / USD上開設長倉：

德國和歐元區的強勁ZEW指數數據幫助歐元刷新了本週新高，但隨後的需求下降。在美國的交易時段，將會發布幾份房地產市場數據報告，首先是建築許可證和住房開工數據，緊接著是工業產值數據，這將影響美元的走勢。如果數據表現強勁，EUR / USD可能會在明天聯儲會議前進行下調修正。考慮到市場的低波動性，我更傾向於在回調中買入。1.0906附近的假突破將為購入EUR / USD提供理由，目標是進一步延續多頭趨勢，目標為1.0954。從上方突破並再次測試這個區間將證實長倉的有效性，目標為1.0997（新的月度新高）。最終目標將是1.1047，這是我取得利潤的地方。

如果EUR / USD下跌並且在1.0906附近缺乏多頭活動，該對可能會保持在一個橫盤範圍內，可能導致更深度的修正。在這種情況下，賣家可能會將價格壓到1.0866。我只會在這個水平取得假突破後才會購買歐元。如果該對進一步下跌，我將從1.0827開設長倉，期待30-35點的盤中反彈。

對於在EUR / USD上開設短倉：

賣家成功地捍衛了1.0945，轉而專注於新的阻力位1.0954，這在當天的上半部形成。這個水平的假突破，配合強勁的美國經濟數據，將為做空提供一個好的進場點，目標為1.0906，這個價位下方的移動平均線目前支持多頭。突破並在此範圍以下穩定將是另一個賣出EUR / USD的信號，目標為1.0866。最終目標將是1.0827，這是我取得利潤的地方。

如果EUR / USD在下半部上升，並且熊方無法捍衛1.0954，買家可能會抬高該對價格。在這種情況，我會延遲做空，直至1.0997的測試，只有在那裡的整固失敗后我才會賣出。如果那裡沒有下跌動作，我將從1.1047開設短倉，目標為下拉30-35點。

Exchange Rates 18.03.2025 analysis

3月11日的COT報告顯示，多頭倉位的增加以及空頭倉位的大幅減少。更多交易者願意購買歐元，而賣家則迅速退出市場。德國的財政刺激措施和歐洲中央銀行對經濟的持續支持都增強了對EUR/USD的需求。此外，烏克蘭衝突得以解決的進展也被視為歐元的正向因素。

隨著即將到來的美聯儲會議，中央銀行可能採取的鴿派立場可能會使美元進一步貶值。COT報告顯示，非商業性多頭倉位增加了3,424至188,647，而非商業性空頭倉位則減少了19,772至175,557。因此，多頭倉位和空頭倉位之間的差距擴大了8,097個合約，對買家有利。

Exchange Rates 18.03.2025 analysis

指標信號：

移動平均：該對交易在30期和50期移動平均線之上，表明歐元可能有進一步的成長潛力。

布林帶：指標的下邊界在1.0906，作為下降情況下的關鍵支撐水平。

指標說明：

  • 移動平均線 (MA)：通過平滑波動與噪音以確定當前趨勢。
  • MACD (移動平均收斂/擴散)：用於衡量趨勢強度和可能的反轉。
  • 布林帶：用於識別超買和超賣的市場狀況。
  • 非商業交易者：如對沖基金和大型機構等進行期貨交易以進行投機的投機者。
  • 非商業交易者的長期持倉：非商業交易者的總長期未平倉合約。
  • 非商業交易者的短期持倉：非商業交易者的總短期未平倉合約。
  • 非商業交易者的淨持倉：非商業交易者的短期和長期持倉的差額。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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