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18.03.202519:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD：3月18日美國盤交易計劃（早盤交易分析）

在我早晨的預測中，我專注於1.2994水平，並計劃根據此做出市場進場決策。讓我們來看一下5分鐘圖，分析發生了什麼情況。1.2994水平的上升及假突破提供了一個良好的賣出英鎊的進場點。然而，如圖所示，並沒有出現顯著的下跌。下午的技術前景已進行了調整。

Exchange Rates 18.03.2025 analysis

英鎊/美元 開設多頭持倉的策略：

由於缺乏來自英國的經濟數據，英鎊繼續增長，這與上週的情況相似。今天也不例外。然而，在更新週高後，買家有所放緩，這表明在明天的聯邦儲備委員會會議和星期四的英國央行會議前顯得謹慎。

在美國交易時段，將公佈包括建築許可、房屋開工以及工業生產變動在內的房地產市場數據。只有非常強勁的數據才能對英鎊施加壓力。考慮到牛市趨勢，最佳策略是在來自1.2967這一最接近支撐的回調處買入，該支撐形成於今天的前半段。此水準的假突破將為多頭持倉提供良好的進場點，目標是回升至1.3002（周高）。突破並從上方重新測試此水準將證明多頭持倉的有效性，目標將是1.3035，加強牛市行情。最後的目標將是1.3068，我計劃在此盈利出場。

如果英鎊/美元下跌且在1.2967附近欠缺多頭活動，對英鎊的壓力將增加，雖然不太可能顯著影響牛市前景。在這種情況下，1.2930的假突破將是開啟多頭持倉的合適條件。如果價格進一步下跌，我將在1.2903的支撐處買入英鎊/美元，預期有30-35點的日內反彈。

英鎊/美元 開設空頭持倉的策略：

賣方試圖采取行動，但尚無強烈的驅動力進行積極賣出。下半場的注意力將轉向守住1.3002的阻力位，如果美國數據令人失望，該阻力位可能會被測試。一旦在此水準出現假突破，將提供賣出機會，目標是降至1.2967，移動平均線目前對多頭有利。

從下方突破並重新測試1.2967將觸發止損單，開闢通往1.2930的道路，這將是顯著的修正。最後的目標是1.2903，我將在此盈利出場。測試這一水準可能會阻止牛市趨勢。

如果當日下半段英鎊需求依然強勁，而空頭未能守住1.3002，我將延遲賣出，直到測試1.3035才做出空頭動作，僅在整固失敗後進行。如果英鎊/美元未能從此下行，我將考慮從1.3068進行空頭操作，目標為30-35點的回調。

Exchange Rates 18.03.2025 analysis

交易者承諾報告（COT）：

3月11日的COT報告顯示，雖然多頭和空頭頭寸均有所增加，但多頭頭寸增加的幅度明顯更大，增強了英鎊的看漲優勢。這一點在GBP/USD圖表中也有所反映。

鑑於英國經濟的積極趨勢和英格蘭銀行逐步的降息步伐，GBP/USD很可能會繼續增長。即將舉行的美聯儲會議可能會進一步削弱美元，這意味著英鎊買家不必過於擔心。然而，在創下局部新高之前，修正仍有可能發生。

COT報告顯示，非商業多頭頭寸增加了12,920至94,786，而非商業空頭頭寸僅增加了2,301，達到65,593。因此，多頭和空頭頭寸之間的差距擴大了10,925，對買家有利。
Exchange Rates 18.03.2025 analysis

指標信號：

移動平均線：該貨幣對交投於30和50期移動平均線之上，顯示英鎊/美元進一步上行的潛力。

布林帶：如果該貨幣對下跌，支撐將在指標的下限1.2967。

指標描述：

  • 移動平均線 (MA)：通過平滑波動和噪音來確定當前趨勢。
  • MACD (移動平均收斂/發散)：衡量趨勢強度和潛在的反轉。
  • 布林帶：用於識別市場的超買和超賣情況。
  • 非商業交易者：如對沖基金和大型機構等投機者，出於投機目的交易期貨。
  • 長頭寸的非商業交易者：非商業交易者的總多頭未平倉合約。
  • 短頭寸的非商業交易者：非商業交易者的總空頭未平倉合約。
  • 非商業淨頭寸：非商業交易者的空頭和多頭頭寸之間的差額。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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